Discussion in 'Trading' started by bond_trad3r, Aug 5, 2011.
Bought ES on the close yst and sold in today's premkt.
I'm buying here if we get to 1190... should give me some pain but it is what it is.
This was an insane move, I finally sold out of TVIX after the bounce above $32.50 and went long UWM, I feel this market is going to certainly surge to the upside, tech led the way down this morning weakening most of the market, once the nasdaq gains momentum the SPX will follow, going to be an interesting close. Once the rally kicks in its going to last a few days and probably add 3-5% to this market.
Capitulation is over. Bull trap completed. Markets will explode next week. Look for new highs in nasdaq.
You're going to need a bailout. lmao, NHs. It is OVER. SPX will not touch 1300 this year.
I don't think new highs for the nasdaq are coming, there will be a rally of at least 5%, but I think people are going to sell the rallies. Markets are stuck in a trading range and for the nasdaq to break out above 3000 there needs to be a huge catalyst and the only thing bulls are hoping for is QE3. So QE3 is the ONLY catalyst for the markets which will only bring increased equity prices along with increased commodity prices which means more inflation and a worthless dollar.
Only problem with this is that it seems like everyone is thinking the same thing.
A move back up through the highs, then a roll-over, seems the best way for the market to screw everyone.
I agree with you, however these guys down below are more bullish than ever!
Some even have a year end forecast as high as 1550 HAHAHAHAHA
FROM AUGUST 5th 2011
Golub says the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,425. It fell yesterday to an eight-month low of 1,200.07 amid a global rout, extending a nine-day retreat to 11 percent.
Credit Suisse, HSBC
Strategists say earnings growth will fuel gains. S&P 500 profit will rise 18 percent in 2011 and 14 percent in 2012, according to the average per-share analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey. More than 75 percent of corporations in the index have exceeded earnings estimates for the second quarter, with total income topping projections by 5.2 percent.
Credit Suisse Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc advised investors to buy equities today. Andrew Garthwaite, London-based strategist at Credit Suisse, reiterated an âoverweightâ recommendation on stocks even as he cut his 2011-end forecast for the S&P 500 by 7 percent to 1,350.
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview that he expects the S&P 500 to rally about 40-to-50 points.
âItâs unlikely I will change my view because we had a bad week or get really excited because we had a good week,â Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc. (C)âs chief U.S. equity strategist in New York, said in an Aug. 3 phone interview. âThatâs not a well- reasoned market outlook,â said Levkovich, who forecasts the S&P 500 will end the year at 1,400. âThatâs a reactive trader mindset, but thatâs not what Iâm supposed to be doing.â
Following the drop in valuations, âour view is growth picks up, and like last summer/fall as the data turn up, they will take the equity market up with it,â Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bankâs chief U.S. equity strategist in New York, said in an Aug. 2 e-mail. He said the index will reach 1,550, the highest projection in the Bloomberg survey.
Brian Belski, the New York-based chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., said in a telephone interview yesterday. âA year ago, we were only a couple quarters into the rebound, now weâre further in. There was less belief a year ago because nobody really believed forward earnings growth. Now theyâve proven themselves.â He estimates the S&P 500 will reach 1,325.
Barry Knapp, the New York-based chief U.S. equity strategist at Barclays, said that itâs unlikely the economy will contract even though data show a slowdown. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has averaged negative 95.05 since sinking on June 3 to negative 117.20, meaning reports were missing the median estimate in Bloomberg surveys by the most since January 2009.
âIf you sell stocks at 1,250, thatâs a bet weâre going back to a recession, and we donât buy that,â Knapp said in a telephone interview yesterday. His year-end projection is 1,450. âThe probability of the U.S. going back into a recession is low. These things have a way of running their course.â
Really? Nasdaq to hit new highs next week?
Are you a fucking imbecile?
Your analysis will fail if the problems in Europe persist and it seems it is only the beginning. The dollar will not be affected by QE3 and commodities will not rise.
QE3 will be larger than 1+2 combined. It is required to avert a worldwide crisis. Actually Bernanke has not done enough in terms of QE, he was not generous. America is 1/4 of worldwide GDP. Something goes wrong, another dip, and there you go.
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