Haha.... Everyone hating on Gallup now.

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Grandluxe, Oct 21, 2012.

  1. By Andy Sullivan | Reuters – Sat, Oct 20, 2012

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The election between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks like it will be a knuckle-biter - unless you go by one of the United States' most respected public-opinion polls.

    As most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable six percentage points if the election were held today.

    Questions about the gap between Gallup's findings and those of other pollsters is the latest fuss this election season over polling methodology as partisan passions come to a boil in the heated final weeks before the November 6 presidential contest.
    With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.

    "They're just so out of kilter at the moment," said Simon Jackman, a Stanford University political science professor and author of a book on polling. "Either they're doing something really wacky or the other 18 pollsters out there are colluding, or something."

    Obama pollster Joel Benenson called the Gallup survey an "extreme outlier" and said its formula to determine likely voters created a bias against Obama supporters. "Gallup's data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters," he wrote in a memo on Monday.

    Republican strategist Karl Rove pointed out on Thursday that no candidate who has ever polled more than 50 percent in the Gallup poll at this point in a presidential race has gone on to lose the election. As it happens, Gallup had Romney at 51 percent that day.

  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    It does beg the question "what is Gallup doing so differently, and why?"
  3. Where's the ''hate'' ?
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    "Hate" is subjective. There are a lot of media outlets - print and tv - who have been poking fun at Gallup because of the outlier results.
  5. Tsing. . . do you think the people here are right in making fun of Obama when he greets Japanese dignitaries with a bow?
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    No, I think that's ridiculous (making fun of him). It is Japanese custom to bow to your host. The level of which you bow is determined by your status - but Obama probably didn't know that (although someone at State should have).

    But bowing is normal in Japanese culture. After 20+ years in Japanese martial arts and a whole lot of studying in Okinawa, I can feel comfortable I am correct.
  7. pspr


    And it was just a week ago that Gallup ajusted their methodology to give Obama a better edge!

    The Gallup poll has widened further to a 7% Romney lead. Gallup has always been the most respected of the public polesters so, what to make of it is hard to say.
  8. wjk


    Perhaps payback for the admin’s previous threats, or maybe they just decided to ignore those threats.
  9. They've probably made adjustments based upon statistical internals measuring turnout and undecided voters (the two most difficult parts of election polling to get right) and believe they're using it to their advantage. Their goal is to be right when others are wrong. Whether they're right or wrong, we'll find out in a couple of weeks.