The average, according to the second link you've so kindly provided, is Obama +5.5%, which is in synchronicity with the Intrade numbers. You're failure to grasp this rather simple point leads me to believe that the rest of your analytical input is pure garbage. Much like your take on the market.
Other sources are now confirming Obama's polling decline: http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977470566 Now may be a good time to load up on 30 McCain contracts on Intrade. You can probably sell them at 50 a few weeks later. it says: " McCain had an advantage among men, white respondents, older voters, Catholics, and those making more than $100,000 per year, Reuters said. Favorability ratings came in at 57 percent for McCain and 55 percent for Obama. " Um..isn't that most of the country? opps I think Obama is gonna lose. It is very hard to win without winning the popular vote.
One of the biggest factors that will lead to Obama's fall is that 90% of the media refuse's to investigate Obama's radical associations. Instead of investigating all they do is say negative campaigning by McCain will only hurt his campaigne. The democrats are scared as hell. If i was Obama i would dedicate a whole week to investigating myself in order to prove that these radical ties were merely aquitances. If they were merely aquitances than he would have resolved this issue months ago by proving that he was innocent. Instead he like the rest of the liberals CANNOT even address this whatsoever. Obama try's to display the issue as unimportant but when millions of people question these associations it turns into an important issue. Deciding not to investigate this issue will vastly hurt Obama. Obama is in a huge Lose Lose situation because if he and the media decide not to investigate the real story than he will end up slaughtered like John Kerry with no essential defenses other than denial. If however Obama or major media outlets decide to give the whole truth about his radical associations than he will still be slaughtered.