This entry is for the Es trade mentioned in the previous post. I shorted 43.75 and was out of the trade at 37. That was based on the previously mentioned parameters. there is a range of response to this indicator that I have yet to be able to reliably predict. At best it suggests the market participants will rebalance their positions, shorts closing some profits, longs creating new entries to average out of losses ect. in balancing markets it becomes something of a pivot, however, with any real pressure to the move it at best offers up an opportunity to join a trend as I assume the same usual business that produces a bounce takes place. If you had bought this signal you would have stood a chance to close a few points at best, or perhaps scratch trade. it certainly marked a period in the down move where the general bias was up trending before resuming the selling into close. if anyone has a solid metric on how to determine the strength of a move I would love the suggestion. It would be great to be able to score these signals in terms of the best possible play (which is most often pivot given the market is most often establishing balance.) I will post up a final for the day as well.
here's a final for the Es today. you'll see the the small uptick indicated, before resuming the general downtrend. I think the best play was interpreting it as an opportunity to join the market move based on the signal, but that's not the most often occurring outcome so I hesitate to introduce that to the overall trading strategy
Thought I would share some downtime reading relating to probability and variance. https://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/Chapter6.pdf
Slow day today with many other markets on holiday. Minor pullbacks on the signal today, but no reversals. Would have been best to use them to join the trend with least risk.
First one knocked me out for a small fee, then I started wrapping up taxes. Figured it would do what it did. Sometimes it's that way. Haven't nailed down a way to distinguish between pullbacks and market turns inside the indicator. Would be nice to reduce the noise in it to just reversals. Need a better platform to find the solution.