Biggest game changer when trading SPY etc is religiously using the TRIN. Trin > 1.5 = short bias Trin < .7 = long bias Trin near 1 = stay clear Test it, you'll be impressed
Thanks, I was thinking about using it, but sometimes I'm getting opposite signals from my own SPY trading bot that is 90% accurate: https://deustrader.com/zeus_longus_1.html (though my bot learned to cheat by waiting for SPY to recover, which may not be a bad approach for averaging down SPY stock while trading it along the way, but isn't necessarily good for options. I may write about this later) Generally there is no great predictor and if any signal is wrong then I may lose opportunities by not getting into a position, so I may actually buy when others are selling. At least with options I can hedge, while also needing pullbacks just so I can enter new trades I've been waiting for. And I need to rely less on predicting stuff, but more on technical/mathematical/statistical odds.
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-c...nical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/trin Right re TRIN sometimes divergent, watch over a few weeks worth of sessions; it's often correct but not 100%. I use VIX too.
I didn't want to post much recently, especially my performance, as I've traded some GME options couple weeks ago and was waiting (and still am) for those option prices to stabilize, and to be able to close them. Many show large profit, but aren't liquid enough to close positions, so I'm exiting slowly every day. I'm also trying not to look at my account value/performance, so I can focus on each trade. Just checked today and was a bit surprised with the performance. I actually didn't even plan to trade much in January and didn't have as many positions as I'd like, but still managed to do well, with profits trickling in from options on various stocks, ETFs and indexes, and without large losses anywhere. My account shows being 20%+ up YTD, but it may be a bit less due to owning various illiquid options. While even my today's final YTD performance shown below at 25% is pretty much invalid due to brokers' inability to correctly calculate option prices, especially after bids/asks are pulled at market close. Overall I can't complain, but I've been busy with a few other things and wish I had more time to work on trading and coding, because there is always more to do, to understand, and to discover. In the past I've been rating my options strategies from 1-10, but as I improve my system and my understanding of options, I keep finding better and better strategies and running out of scale, now rating some setups at 11 and 12. At this point I'm sure the Holy Grail exists, but it is still fluid and ever elusive. Currently I believe it comes down to containing the volatility and improving the stability of an options portfolio, while still being able to mix-in lots of options strategies. I'll get there when I can focus on this again, which will be soon.
i also have clov and Tesla.the positions you are holding are only naked calls or other complex option legs?
On CLOV I have basic call spreads for August, so it’s an unhedged bet, mainly because they didn’t have enough option strikes to play with. On TSLA I have a few complex positions, playing it both ways, but the position can fluctuate a lot while I’m also testing a new strategy on it.
It's confirmed. The Holy Grail does exist (in options). And I have it. I now possess the total and complete knowledge of the options universe, and have unsurpassed clarity and understanding of every options trading strategy that anyone can think of, as well as those that no one has thought of. But I don't want to have to trade for the next 10+ years to multiply my account 100-fold, or whatever. So I'm going to sell it. For $1 billion. Watch me.
Just 1B for the holy grail?! What amount of time and money is needed to break even on the investment? But congrats anyway!