Gunslinger Day Trading System

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DT-waw, Dec 12, 2001.

  1. Here's what I've found:

    The S&P500 day trading system "Gunslinger" results.

    First, there's no info is it tested on SP500 Emini futures or "big" futures. But - two numbers show that system results are based on one Emini contract:
    "Average Monthly Return" from "Equity Curve Analysis" : $5,597
    "Average Monthly Return" form "Fixed Capital Returns" : 111.95%

    Since average margin on SP500 Emini contracts is about $4,500 the above numbers are correct.

    The system has a net profit of $324,655 with percent profitable 51.29% and ratio av win/av loss 1.84 and maximum drawdown of $10,500. Total # of trades 776 in 4.8 years period. $70 slippage and commissions are added to each trade.

    Now, If this system earns 324k from trading 1 Emini contract in 5 years, why they sell it to the public!!!
    By trading in 1000-lots they will earn $324M in 5 years!!!

    I discover something strange in system results.
    "Average time in winning trades" is 0.0553 days. That's 1.33 hours or 80 minutes. And "Average winning trade" is $1,690. SP500 Emini contract are $50/point. So, av win is 33.8 point!

    How it is possible to earn 33.8 point on average in av time 80 minutes by trading SP futures??

    According to my data ( from yahoo finance ) SP500 index average point difference between sessions form 01 Jan 1997 to 10 Sep 2001 is 11.29
    Average daily range in the same period is only 19.34 pts

    Maybe there's some mistake in my analysis? Something that I don't understand correctly?

  2. The above system initial capital is $5,000.
    On 1 Jan 1997 SP500 index was about 750 pts.

    This system can't trade "Big" SP futures ( $250/point ) with 5,000 initial capital. Reason: initial margin on SP futures on 1 Jan 1997 was about $10k ~ $13k.

  3. WarEagle

    WarEagle Moderator


    You have to look at the whole picture. When using averages, you can have the results skewed by a few outliers. If you look at the average trade (incuding losers) the average time in a trade is only slightly less at .0475 days with an average trade of $418 or ~ 8 e-mini points. That is a little more realistic, but I would still be cautious...they can make the stats say anything.

    I still think commercial systems are usually over optimized and won't work going foward, however, I know nothing about this one. I do know that I don't care for the Sharpe ratio of around 1 or the profit factor under 2.

    You need to make sure that the results presented are in fact on the e-mini and not the full contract. They can enter any margin amount they want (which can throw off the % calculations), but what is important is the point value they are using ($250 for full S&P vs $50 for the mini). Those results on the full contract (avg trade less than 1 point) would suck.

    I didn't see it listed with FuturesTruth, so that is a red flag as well. Ask them for real-time audited brokerage statements...their reaction to this question will tell you a lot about the system. Also, don't forget to read the disclaimer at the bottom of their page (with my comments added):

    "Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown (yes they are...on what other basis would they be selling it?). In fact, there are frequently sharp differences (usually negative, I might add) between hypothetical performance results and the actual results achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight (fancy words that mean OPTIMIZED). In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. "

    Be careful,

  4. Good morning to all of you concerned about the Gunslinger.

    Here is your history so you can all put it into perspective.

    The software was released in Jan 1999 to the public. We took it off the shelves about a year later as I got very heavily involved into fibonacci price projection techniques and learning what I feel is the most power price forecasting method available.

    I subsequently started doing seminars and teaching the Day Trading methodology to the public. Had the seminar in short form on the ZAP Futures website... which anyone can still access the archived version if you visit their website.

    The gentleman who worked for me Jerry Simmons narrated the seminar and we then opened a live chat room for daytrading the S&P.

    All the while I have been working with a " super" programmer putting together and automating the entire fibonacci spectrum for tradestation for multiple timeframe analysis and this has taken over 7 months of SERIOUS programming to accomplish. Completion of the DLL versions will be done this weekend that work around the MANY tradestation limitations we all know and love.

    Unfortunately the chat room did not go as planned. I re-released the Gunslinger a few months before I wanted to.

    My plan from day one was to incorporate the fibonacci time and price automated software we have been working on into the Gunslinger and re-release in Jan, 2002. The demise of the chat room pushed that time up a bit.

    The gunlsinger results you have been chatting about are Hypothetical Trades taken on ONE BIG S&P contract.

    When asked I suggest $35,000 to $50,000 per contract to trade an S&P contract or 1/5 th that for a mini....... most traders HATE to hear numbers that large but hey, most traders lose don't they.

    When you get to January of this year you will see a new S&P program on my site that will be totally different... don't freak out! It will be the combination of a LOT of hard work and proven methods.

    My wish if for everyone to make money. I also pride myself on honesty which is rare ( unfortunately ) in the systems business.
    Thanks to all of you who sit around and chit-chat about my software.

    John Novak
  5. I love the way " KIRK " who was the alias used by Todd B. My old attempt at a partner in this business who ended up stealing the business blind..... stuck in his own vesion of hypothetical results.....

    I must applaud your creative mind....

    If our KIRK'S are one in the same I have the list of all the clients who " KIRK " sold the Gunslinger to himself...............

    Ponder that one for a bit.........................
  6. "$70 slippage and commissions are added to each trade". Commissions are $20 per trade. I don't think they've set such a low slippage at $25 per order ( only 0.1 big SP point ). Spread on big SP futures is about 0.5 point.

    If they can enter any margin they want then of course all % results suck!!! There must be some standard for presenting system's results.

    Nexgen systems are tracked by FuturesTruth. With exception of S&P500 market ( hmmm I wonder why? ).

    I think that system's optimization means nothing if the optimized system still has a big number of trades ( over, let's say 500 ).

    Just read John Novak post... OK it's a BIG SP - av win/loss numbers are correct.

  7. And Kirk,

    If you are not the Todd B. that I thought I appologize....... just the way you spew out STENDAHL outlier terminology and Larry Stein from ALARON phrases from THE R&W technical services days
    makes me think that way......
  8. WarEagle

    WarEagle Moderator

    Ponder this one for a bit JOHN...

    I don't know who the heck you are talking about. Fortunately I have never been in business as a system vendor. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

    KIRK is my real Don Bright puts it, "not an alias".

    No need to get personal because your feelings are hurt that someone can see holes in your system. All I did was answer a question about what I thought of the results posted on your website. I don't know you or your company, and I don't care, but I've seen enough systems for sale to know a bad one when I see it. If I can save anyone from making the same mistakes I've made from listening to pie in the sky vendors, then it will have been worth it. The fact is that an average trade of $400 is not good on the full S&P contract, and $70 slippage is unrealistic. If it was so great, you would be trading it for yourself and we would never hear of it, plain and simple. If it is truely a winner, then word will get out and you will sell a ton...regardless of what this one, insignificant, person has to say about it.


    Kirk Walker

    P.S. What the heck is STENDAHL outlier terminology anyway?
  9. On the last post I wrote that big SP contracts spread is about 0.5 point. Maybe it's a little bit different - I rely on unreliable Livecharts quotes. Anybody know what's the average spread on these futures? Volume is much smaller than on the Emini...

    BTW: what are advantages and disadvantages of trading Big SP futures vs Emini futures? Big contracts have smaller ticks (0.1 vs 0.25 emini ) but lower volume. What about executions?

  10. vikana

    vikana Moderator

    I have trade both the full sp and the mini ES. Today I would only trade the ES due to the much faster fills, availability of volume in real-time and a bid/ask with volume. I also like the the smaller mini size, since I can control 5 mini's better than one full sp.

    Pit traded SP's are slow and imo not nearly as reliable with respect to slip, executing time etc. Only benefit is if you have mega bucks to trade, then maybe you want to save a few dollars on commissions.
    #10     Dec 12, 2001