Ocho is on my Ignore, so I can't see his I am sure very valuable contribution. This weeks Tu-Th numbers were 4100, 3900, 3900. So this week we only had one 4K+ day and we are obviously on the downward slope of the death rate.
I made my prediction 7 weeks out. As I said before, I undershot the numbers because I didn't want to alter it a week later. Looks like I nailed the middle of the peak, although my date was technically only the 3rd highest day. Here is the visualization: The point of this exercise was that you don't need to be a virologist or a scientist to do basic math and project available data.
Since I like to predict, I had another Covid related prediction about the Michigan surge: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/michigans-covid-death-numbers.357652/ Although the mid-April infection rate in Michigan was higher than the previous peak, I predicted that the death rate would stay way below the previous 124 7-day average, guessing 55-60 as top. The peak came in at 72, pretty good guess in my book. I was also right about the top being 2-3 weeks later, the date being on May 6th. Again, you don't have to be an expert, just use common sense and basic math.