Guess The Gold Bottom... I'm saying 850

i can see a bit of a bull run starting, but the bloody fed will be doing the famous .25 basis cut...i think this will mask the bull run that was suppose to happen...so we shall sit and wait and expect the proper bull run end of may....not that my portfolio guys are getting ready to buy...hint hint hint...

 

My new guess for the bottom is 810, the previous low in march should be breached today.

 

Hello, there is 200 daily Ema somewhere above 850. If it will fall bellow 200 EMA we can expect as minimum few months bear gold market. Last times it was bellow 200 EMA in the middle 2006. I doubt that it will make candle completely bellow 200 EMA.

 

IMO, now that March lows have been broken, Dec lows around $850 are now in play.

 

DO you guys have any big moves set up for a gold bottom play?

 

I am Short one from 926 a second from 896 and a third from 887. I took profits just now at 872 on one contract. I am leaving the rest as runners. I expect to see 850 this week at least.

Good luck all. We have a ton more downside potential. Having 3 short contracts has been a little bit more stressful because it exceeds my risk tolerance. I just felt so strongly about gold plummeting.

 

Nice work!!

Speaking of risk tolerance, my account is now up 50% from these moves: (I started with a paltry 2500...)
I put in a short at 925 and doubled down at 945, took profits at 909 and went short again 915 took half profits at 892 then just closed them out at 872...

 

If and this is a BIG if....the Fed surprises tomorrow and doesn't cut rates Gold may drop $50 tomorrow alone.

 

Really nice work with a starting 2500 dollars. I will maintain these 2 shorts because we have broken down through all recent support. We are about to start having fun

I agree, If fed does not cut at all Gold will tank so badly. IF they cut .25 but say they wont cut again then Gold will also likely tank. Either way, I am very happy with my trading.

I think it did show some poor discipline to increase my position beyond my allowable risk tolerance. I just felt like it was free money, and I could not pass it up. I need to work on that; however I always had some pretty solid stops.

 

you guys have good advice and have me a bit worried...sitting on a ton of gold. So forget today and next month whats the concensus by july /aug 2008?

its true the fed cant keep cutting...but remeber in 2007 gold went up with the market so thats why i have hung on to it...