GRPN sold 35 million shares at $20, but there are another 600 million shares that will be available for sale at the end of a 180 day lockup period. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1490281/000104746911009142/a2206165z424b4.htm (refer page 149) http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html I calculate that date to be Wednesday 2 May 2012. I'll be looking to short GRPN in late April 2012. ** Total class A shares outstanding 635,403,352 publicly traded float 35 million
I wouldn't worry about the lock-up play. It will 1.) be under 10$ or 2.) do a massive secondary before the lock-up expiration.
Just bookmarking an old thread by Pekelo about GRPN http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=222051&highlight=groupon "Groupon Is a Straight-Up Ponzi Scheme"
I agree. The thread discusses the "ponzi scheme" angle (with which I disagree), but it also discusses the dubious nature of the business model.
May Day Looms Large For Groupon http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204296804577124833343029236.html Looking ahead, Groupon and Zynga shareholders have lockups expiring on May 1 and May 28, respectively. Shareholders, already suffering lackluster performance, will have to mark their calendars.
Problem with shorting GRPN is the massive borrow rates you have to pay. The market markers are cleaning up on the bid ask spread of the single stock futures, the longs are collecting a lot of fee income by lending out their shares. Its the short sellers that are paying for the party
What a clever boy!... No doubt you're the only person in the financial markets aware of the lockup expiry.