wow euro is falling like a rock, I expected selling but not without some kind of retracements. from this weakness it looks like we may see 1.500 before 1.600 but as to what its gonna do next i have no idea. predictably my last long did not work yet again, but i am getting used to that, but i was pissed that I closed my short before work this morning at only a 45 pip profit, i missed out on another 45 pips. soon i will be long again maybe 4th time is the charm. PROG SIGNALS: STOP OUT @ 1.5616 @ 1AM (-30 pips) SHORT @ 1.5605 @ 2AM COVERED MANUALLY @ 1.5565 @ 7AM (+45 pips) Net pips: +15 Act val: 3270 p.s. just got long at 1.5520 will post later
Alright I know I am being secretive but you should know not to ask a trader his system. I would gladly tell everyone what it is if it was very complicated and involded a billion formulas that no one could decipher in a million years. I am not the only creater of the prog and my business partner who coded the system would be pissed for sharing HIS hard work. I will only say what i said already, I use one indicator only, it is based on a modified moving average, Thereby, it simply follows trends like a MA nothing magical about it. If you look at the signals you can tell that they are not perfect, and are delayed as all MA price following systems are. It is nowhere near as good as some of the more extreme price action systems I have seen that can generate 100K+ (no exaggeration) in a week on pretty small size (wish I had that one). Such systems are based on real time price movement analysis and can react extremely fast to sharp moves. Mine is a snail by comparison but luckily for me the FX markets tends to trend well and has little slippage, otherwise It wouldnt work period.
So basically this is a trend following system (as there are many of them)? If you get out long, you take short. Right?
Yeah one of the simplest is a MA crossover system where you get a buy signal when short MA crosses long. Those dont work because they are way too slow, although with some functions to filter its signals, and some position size management you can prob get those to work too. In principle I tend to reverse my positions when my buys become sells, but i may set it so it only trades just buy signals or like in this week only sells signals worked.
Last night was an exercise in retardation trading. After my long signal was stopped out, I bought EUR again since the quick snap back in the first bar of selling indicated nothing more than a shake out, but I got stopped out again. Finally after two consecutive stop outs I bought a third time turned my prog off and took down my stops. I put a buy stop for more and went to bed. BAADDD idea in general, 9 times out of ten you will wake up to huge losses. Luckily i was right and made my pips back. Then in the morning i accidentally exited my full 50K position instead of just 25 K, so i rebought 25K before work. Trades: LONG @ 1.5520@ 5pm Stop out (-30) LONG @ 1.5507 @ 2:10 AM Stop out (-30) LONG @ 1.5482 @ 2:15 AM LONG @ 1.5500 @ 5:00 AM SELL 50K @ 1.5526 (32 pips on 50K) @ 7:30 AM BUY @ 1.5528 @ 7:30 AM SELL @ 1.5560 (+32) @ 2:40 PM Net pips: +36 Acct value: 3350, up 3.5% for the week Overall an inline week but not spectacular. My prog still needs to be fixed to double check trades and I am only interfering with my discretionary trades. This is the second week in a row that I am coming up with less pips than my signals gave me. Last week I was almost 100 pips short since i wasnt using the 30 min bars. Cumulative 30 min signal pips this week: -10, -30, +53, -30, 37, -30, +90, -30, -30 +60. Total pips i should have got this week: +80 pips My actual trades: -40, -30, +58 (on 30K), -22, +31, -30, +45, -30,-30, +64 (32 on 50K), +32 = +60 pips on 25K
I made a mistake for the calculation of the pips generated by my signals, the last trade would not have been +60 but +47 so my total would not be 80 but +67 pips. Since I actually captured 60 this is quite close to perfect program trading.
This weekend I read some articles on pivot points and decided to play around with them. I put on some trades last night, prog was off and I missed one stop out of -30 pips. I bought 25K at 1.5562 and another at 1.5550 on a buy stop. I used pivot points to place a limit order at 1.5590. Miraculously I got out on the very top for a profit of 32 pips on 50K. There was also an erroneous trade in eur.chf for 4 pips, but that was an order mistake. I will be starting the prog soon and hopefully will try to utilize pivot points in some way to aid myself but i dont yet have a concerete plan. I was thinking from the anemic price moves that euro might acctually sell harder and faster to 1.500. However, the one analyst i listen to sometimes (jamie saettele) has a price target over 1.600. Normally i dont listen to most website analysts as few could make a profitable trade to save their lives but jamie has on numerous occassions proven quite insightful. So I will remain neutral until we break out of this range. Total pips: +32 on 50K Acct Val: 3509
Last night we saw a move strong move higher in EURUSD. If it holds up at these levels it would support further bullish sentiment. I had another discretionary long last night from 1.5543 to 1.5590. I will post my blotter when I get home from work. Total pips: +47 Acct Val: 3619