Yup GBPUSD closed, I just checked. But next time keep an eye out for that. You can sometimes get the same move 2X if the gap doesnt fill and goes the other way.
Yeah, I have not looked into re-entering but what you're saying makes sense...and as you followed-up, the gap did close within the last couple of hours (total open time being about 10 hours). This is good to see. Generally how long do you wait for gaps to close? Until youâre stopped out/hit the TP or what? I have a hard time waiting much longer than 12 hours...I know by 2AM PST Monday, UK market is up and going and I expect more regular buying/selling to effect price. But maybe this is what helps close the gap back to the Friday price? Absolutely...S/L placement is very crucial, more so with this type of trading. Yesterday's gap was set up quite well as it was decently close to the 1.99 whole number and I believe that helped kick the price up and (almost) close the gap, thus allowing my S/L to be placed a little ways under that number (I think I put it at 198.85 or so). But honestly, I need more experience on picking which gaps to trade and which to leave alone. The AUD/USD gap from last week did not ever close and if one was not paying attention, they could have been burned pretty bad. Any opinion on this and how you would have handled it? Do you generally keep your T/P conservative or put them right at the gap price? Yep, totally. And my apologies for trumping over your ATS thread with gap stuff but I agree that this is very good info and hopefully we can draw some feedback/opinions/experiences from other members as well. Thus far, the 70-90% gap closing figure seems to be about accurate...I'm just holding back from going all in until I gain a bit more experience and can produce some sort of track record to prove such. On the EUR/USD, I see a nice little channel moving upwards on the hourly...looks ready to come back down to the rising support though. 1.59 seems to be holding well...will you continue to hold or sell now (at a profit?) and get back in at the support level...around 158.5ish? The longer it takes to break the latest highs, the more likely it seems to be ready for a larger corrective move. Iâm just fearful for the 40k that could get caught up in that. Long term, it should be making new highs. But at what point do you plan to sell/look for a better price or do you plan to hold the 40k through thick and thin, risking a large drawdown for a good while? Thanks for the feedback Bhristov. Let me know if youâd rather have the gap discussions confined to PM as to not clog up your ATS thread. Good trading to you and keep it up.
I just looked at the AUDUSD and its true it didnt close.... yet, it looks like it might within the next few days. In this case I would have been stopped out at 1.5X the range of the gap. However, unclosed gaps STILL have a major tendency to close even days later so I would have kept looking at it and maybe gotten in again at some other point. Once again, I am predicting that if you go long now, you will make profit as the gap closes soon, lets see if I am correct. As for the EURUSD, I actually took 20K off the table at 1.5925 because I saw overbought conditions on my 30 min charts (RSI). I dont think that this move here is the start of a spike up, but I could be wrong. No matter what I do, when I trade like I am right now I wont close my initial 20K position until I have a fundamental shift in where the trend is going. That may take 200 pips or more in some cases somtimes it may be 10 pips it depends. I use this first 20K as a guide and only add or subtract to it. I usually make money from the adding and subtracting and NOT the original trade. Like I may close it out finally at 1.58 I dunno yet. When I was trading stocks some of the senior traders I was learning from were using these types of size management techniques to squeeze out cash in trends that they were DEAD wrong in initially. I am simply applying it here. It only works if you are willing to hold the full range of the security you are trading. In EUR the full range is about 200-400 pips depending on Volatility. Once again I am not by any means advocating this fly by the seat of your pants trading, but it has worked for me and thats why I use it. As for wether or not to discuss gaps on this thread I think its ok since the title and the reality of the thread dont really match up anyway LOL. I will take some time to screen some suggestions for improving my signal selection to maybe increase my profitability ratios and I will give updates. But since I wasnt giving out much info on my ATS trading I feel that these gap discussions may be more interesting and educational to others. It maybe cool to check out gaps each Sun at 5pm and share ideas and trades so we dont miss them. After I am done trading this move here over few days, I may turn on the ATS through out the week and close pos Fridays, to trade gaps on Sun B4 turning ATS on for the rest of the week, thereby decreasing risks and increasing returns. I decided to post a blotter. I havent been posting them since I am not making much trades.
Good work on the EUR/USD pips...nice to see the profit on the blotter! And on that AUD/USD gap...yeah, I don't know. I'm just going to have to come up with a set of rules for these gaps and be able to stick to them. For serious trading, I cannot see myself really holding more than 24 hours and/or have a stoploss larger than 2x the possible reward. You have two weekends of shitty gaps not closing or closing half way and you're going to get burned quickly, especially on a smaller account. Your trading method on the EUR/USD is interesting, certainly not my style but is respectable as you've shown in the past that you can close positions down at losses when you KNOW it's not going your way and you don't believe it's worth trying to "squeeze" any further profits out. But I do think I understand where you're going with the this style of trading. Sounds good on the gaps discussion. I'll certainly be up for a review of this coming Sunday's gaps. More so, I'm interested in your ATS as that's something I know very little about and look forward to seeing more results from that system. Until then, I'm wrapped up in a USD/JPY short that will probably keep my attention the remainder of the week or until stopped out Good luck today...I was hoping to see the E/U higher on shit US news but the market is not wanting to stay down.
EURUSD nicely down now, ready to load up on more when I see a good opportunity to Avg. in some lower prices. I may rebuy the 1.5850 on a buy stop, but hopefully I can get something near 1.5800. If the EUR doesnt start climbing after this fall I may change my outlook. Good luck sam with the USDJPY, fundamentally you are probably trading in the right direction, but for me that pair has consistently proved unprofitable due to its huge range and whippy nature. I estimate I have lost about 3k trading that pair.
As the US market rallies capital inflows from foreign countries are propping up the dollar across the board. Tough staying long but I still am at an avg price of 1.5830 or so with 40K in the market. Would bail below 1.5600 as that final support before 1.52. I am still bullish as I seriously doubt the longterm trend would just rollover with zero pushes to 1.60 to clear out stops and so forth. But then again anything is possible.
Still here, still alive, still long, still underwater LOL. My avg for the 40K is 1.5830 or so. I am down 70 pips at the moment, but WAY better than the -200 earlier. From every piece of info and research I can gather this pair is going lower. I will most likely make some choices when I get home about dumping some and rebuying lower or just reversing and not fighting the trend. Will keep everyone posted.
I am back, regrettably I never took off half my size at the 1.5750 level. Still chilling in my position. Only now I have no choice, if I close I cant trade as my account is below 2K, so I would rather be marginned out waiting. Bad position to be in, but I have been here about half a dozen times. I have kindof stopped paying much attention to it. On the plus side I am glad my other dollars may finally be worth something abroad. Judging by the strength of this move lower, there wont be support until 1.5250 and I wont survive down there. Lets hope I am wrong a second time.