with news and FOMC today coupled with big range move yesterday i would not be surprised if we have a spastic range chop day. i will adjust accordingly or just sit on the side-lines. depends on what personality Sybil the market wakes up with today.
some thoughts on MES trade. as you can see from chart, it's very close to closing gap from a couple days ago. in fact on TOS, their data is saying gap already filled. will the real gap please stand-up!? as i posted previously; i'm going to hold and close out if we get a close today around or above 3300. one scenario is it fills gap and drops and takes out my stop or i manage it to at least keep some of the gains. the other is that it closes above and FOMO kicks in and it continues north... yay! but (and this is just me) i will take profits before it gets to new high or even approaching it as that is a decent paycheck and it's always possible of a reversal / downward 1-2-3 and i really don't want to be dealing with THAT! ok, market about to open U.S. time to strap on the diaper...
everything holding up so far but fireworks about to begin. long 2 MNQ after rejecting 20 ema. target @ R1 but may run out of participants leading up to FOMC. up over $1.2k for the day but that includes $466 profit from NQ trade during Asia session last night. will trail this up 'til it stops... maybe lock in some more beer money.
well, that was like paddle-ball. my desired close above 3300 was denied so trade is still in play and stop in place. the fact that price was not able to close above daily 20 ema , 38.2 fib, or 8 ema, = not so hot. however the gap still wasn't filled (according to Ninja data) by about a point. maybe close enough for jazz who knows. guess we'll find out soon enough. should the pullback go deeper there will be other opportunities. it'll be interesting to see where the overnight crowd takes it.
screen shot of my 5m 20 ema chart with pivots and prior day hi/lo. notice the fib tool encompassing the day range (U.S. regular trading hours) as things unfolded after FOMC my initial long position took a small loss and then i was short 1, got a slight pullback and added another. so was short 2 and initially had target set way out at the central pivot (white dotted line @ 9070.83) until things took more shape (yeah, right). so watching the market internals (see earlier posts) i determined that it might be possible for price to at least travel to the 38.2 retrace level (or 61.8 depending on anchor) @ 9105.29. so it gets within a couple ticks of my limit order @ 9105.50 and BOING! it bounces straight up to the 20 ema and pow right back down and hits my target. net realized profits $520 today and if the MES stop gets hit tonight i guess that's the worst i can do today. time for a drink!
note that had i of left my initial stop in place below swing low (approx $110 risk) i would still be in this trade. i may regret moving to breakeven.... or maybe not. bottom line it may end up being a missed opportunity but i can't focus on that. just file it and move on.
in other things. below is a quad of charts on MNQ (time-frame noted in yellow boxes). note that all of them are below their respective SMA(200) (gold line) with the 5m testing it which (on the 5m) is confluent with prior day low and S1 pivot among other things. as i'm typing this the 5m got one bar close above it's sma200. they're all still fighting the overall trend on daily, weekly, month. trade careful.