reversion to mean. when a stock goes too far and too fast in one direction, the expectation is that it comes back in. so you're fading the trend. upside? a good trader can get high % plays from these. downside? if you have no discipline, you can blow up. and one trade can wipe out a bunch of good ones.
so if I understand it correctly your fading trends? And relative to what are you measuring if a stock is extended, SP500, or its sector.
rtm ,1105-1099 16 pts, 50% retrace 1097,in this example its from break of supp/res to supp and retrace,on larger moves some use fibonacci points for retrace
I have always done the majority of my trading in the first hour of the day. I used to sit at my desk all day trying to scratch out whatever I could. Sometimes it worked, many times it was to my detriment, trying to force trades that weren't that good. The last couple years I've finally been able to walk away and not think about things. I've got enough experience and discipline now that I could sit here all day and avoid the urge to screw up most of the time, but I just decided that free time to pursue other things is worth it to me. I could sit here all day and make maybe 10% more, or work 2 or 3 hours and day and make what I'm making now. But when the market wakes up and there's a good period of volatility, I'll be at my desk all day more often. If you can find success in trading, the lifestyle it affords is the biggest payoff, in my opinion. If I worked 8 or 10 hours a day, then I'd get the monetary benefit, but not the lifestyle. Past a certain point, more money doesn't make that much of a difference.
For some of my mean reversion stuff I'll use bands around the mean to set entry and exit targets. Other than that, just simple trendlines and volume.
Lesco, how do you deal with system's drawdowns? I've diveloped a system which has a profit factor of 4.5 (that's what TradeSation term) and profitability ratio of 80%. Yes, 80%. SIMulated results look good but I am not able to stomach the drawdown flactuations. Obvously if there is a looser then there will be a winner based on 80% probability. How do you deal with it?