I've been thinking about what you have said and I'm having a hard time imagining such a strategy. What I can think of is a pairs spread diverging from its mean, then I could say "odds are getting better" the further it diverges. Or, maybe a triangle formation, where one might say, the longer volatility stays low in the corner, the better are the odds it will shoot big (not sure though). Normally, odds of a setup being profitable are an average value and determined from backtesting or from ones experience, right? One can't say "this gap is twice as big as an average gap, therefore my odds are also twice as better". Or can he? In other words, one can know, this setup is profitable 60% of time, but can he objectively judge quality of a setup? Maybe somebody can provide better examples of a (well known) strategy there one can be sure odds of a setup being profitable are increasing with passage of certain events and are not fixed (excluding options strategies)?
+1 The endless cycles of our profession... boom and bust, rich and lean. When markets contract to such unusual degrees of low volume and volatility, the opposite end of spectrum comes next. Resolution of this extended lull will see all hell break loose in the markets. Sooner or later, it's a sure thing. The longer they build pressure with low vol-vol conditions, the greater degree they will explode/implode to resolve. Always been that way, will always remain that way.
Because i do not trade CL or 6E. I am perfectly happy trading ES. CL is a different game, as is 6E. It is not wise to jump around on the dance floor and constantly switch partners. I know my game and the rest you others can play with.
how do you adjust in this case? by peck away, do you mean you scalp small profit to get back to even first? Quote from bighog: Perfection will never be accomplished, but perfection must always be a goal in a game of inperfect inputs. In order to do better than yesterday we must make mistakes now and then. Example: the small ranges this last month have been challenging on most days......... we adjust and do manage to hit the minimum nut even on the worst days..........small ranges in an index usually starts the day out in negative........so you adjust and must do two things...........peck away to get even (need a couple extra ticks to negate commissions) and sit tight to wait for a decent setup to get a dance. Friday was started behind 5 1/4 handles...........OUCH!!!! Ended up + a bit. That was the biggest loss to start the day in a long time. Prit near, but not plum is good enough on days like that.
<i>Quote from bighog: Example: the small ranges this last month have been challenging on most days......... we adjust and do manage to hit the minimum nut even on the worst days..........small ranges in an index usually starts the day out in negative........ Friday was started behind 5 1/4 handles...........OUCH!!!! Ended up + a bit. That was the biggest loss to start the day in a long time. </i> it's critically important to note that all intraday traders have losing days, all intraday traders draw down, all intraday traders end numerous days with a net loss. Zero exceptions to that universal law gotta be careful what you say there in public... a lot of newbies will mistakenly believe that it's possible to win every day like they're playing guitar hero or something :>)
One of the greatest day trader in america Plus 130k this week,plus 500k the last 4 weeks.I worked in his office in the 90's and corey should know who he is from his tuco days.
bingo. the dudes abilitys are just sick 10 yrs later. stks only and manual. he had a 100k plus day last week chasing 10-20k of aig and lvs one day. then he hits 32k this week on the aig move to $40.he's had 10 straight 7 fig yrs so it speaks for itself. and to boot the dudes humble