i agree. the market is as right/wrong as a tree is right/wrong. The market will do what it will do. Also I don't understand how one can argue that the market is "right" one instance and "wrong" the next. If you hold that the market is right one moment, then it must be wrong at another instance. If you view it in a very narrow time frame, on a tick by tick basis, which tick is right and which tick is wrong? Taken from a longer perspective what closing price is right and what closing price is wrong? I look at this way: The trader is either right or wrong, not the market. The trader is the one who is making the bets. The "market" does not make bets against itself or any trader, it is just a medium nothing more.
really? what's lescor selling? I don't think he tried to make any excuses for himself, and I'm surely not making excuses for him, either for educational sake, which perhaps I mistook this thread for, there are numerous times in EVERY trader's operation where markets are out of synch with strategies. systematic traders assess the current market conditions and try to figure out if a permanent market change has negated their systematic approach below was a quick study of the S&P Index ranges (same/similar range as the futures) Tab 2 charts data w/ 20 per. MA Tab 1a charts raw data (no MA) for past 3 yrs. Tab 1 charts it for past 21 yrs. Here's link to the file: https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0By...kzMWItOTY2NDcyNzA2NDM0&hl=en&authkey=CKyinNQE Feel free to share or not... MBA Gearhead === fact: stock index markets are trading inside all-time historical small ranges. might that affect numerous individual stocks? so is it the strategy wrong for most market conditions? or market wrong for these trading strategies? what I meant by the market is "wrong" by definition was (and remains) that the market is wrong for these strategies AND it is behaving in all-time historical extreme fashion. so one of two things can happen, and only one of two: stock markets will open up ranges and increase volume towards long-time historical norms, or they will trade even tighter until they implode from complete lack of trader participation one or the other, there is no third choice. which would you assume will happen? ** this was a great thread and breath of fresh air in a place where "traders" sell the day's high tick in ES and claim that as a trade, get filled on the low ticks overnight to spare losses and nitpick everything to death. fine for those who are here for such, but it looks like lescor has for the most part left the building. not a bad idea
I choose to view the market as being right. It is how I deal with the psychology of trading and how I keep from staying stubborn regardless if I am fading or trading with a move. Now lets not ruin a great thread started by lescor; it certainly was not my intention and in the future, will start another thread when I want to express my opinion on views. Lastly, sorry to Lescor. He is a obviously a great trader and deserves to have his thread back!!!
You guys can argue over semantics and definitions, but I think everyone is basically saying the same thing. Market conditions change. Traders either adapt with the change or wait until conditions change back to what works for them. I try to do both by tweaking certain aspects of my strategies and by working on new ones, or else size down and wait it out. This week was ok, about +11k. I cut my size down by about 25% and saw some small green from a new strategy I just started trading. I've been through phases like this several times. It's just a normal drawdown. I continue to execute the plan the same way every day. If things don't improve, I will keep cutting size until I see a turn around. In the meantime, I devote more time to new ideas and see if I can find something working well in this environment.
That's why you're so successful. I had to do the same thing this year. The year started out with increased volatility in the instrument I trade. I was becoming concerned even during the low volume holiday season because the average price of what I trade had graduated to a new higher level. I was very concerned about my maximum stop loss becoming "unsurvivable" and I wasn't comfortable risking a lot more on my trades. So I added smaller time frames, tweaked my strategies and am currently working on some new strategies as well. Trading is a business and every business has to either adapt to a changing marketplace or get buried by their competitors who do.
I think some people say "the market is never wrong" when they mean "don't immediately make excuses for yourself when you've lost money."
Its very cheerful to read your blog Im too winning trader, but my strategy lies on news. I read all your posts, but seems like your strategy is next You have massive BP. You do premkt massive orders. As u have said it filles about 3% You use market volatility to get "cheap" shares My question is next? How much money you would possible earn, when your balance is 25k and 4x leverage? Like a mortal human being When u have 100k bp? Second question. When u put hundreds of orders. How is it possible that slippage is due to news not volatility?How to you exlude news?