Interesting that no one here who retorted has even considered what my definition of the term "wrong" was to begin with. I see a lot of knee-jerk ass u mptions and extensions from there, but not one person seems to have given a single thought to what I actually said. A closed mind is a terrible thing to waste
The stock market is often wrong for ANY trader's method or approach. The sole reason OP here is down -$40,000 by his last report from +$800,000 last year is due to current market conditions. Current market conditions are "wrong" for his systematic approach(es) to date. When the market reverts back to long-term historical, aka "normal" behavior the OP will return to his own long-term normal trading performance results Trading is not about trying to wriggle and twist oneself into the daily contortions of every market. Trading is about capitalizing inside favorable (right) market conditions and weathering thru unfavorable (wrong) market conditions. Our profession really is simple as that
and the way that one can make money is to minimize losses / trades when things aren't in synch with the way you best trade, and to maximize gains / trades when things ARE in synch with the way you best trade. gl lescor, hope volatility was more predictable for you this week.
Market is never wrong... I don't like that saying. You make money when the market is wrong. When you make a positive risk-adjusted return over a large sample of trades, you were right when the mark was wrong.
Sorry, I don't know what your definition of the term 'wrong' is. I get my definitions from www.dictionary.com. I am not one for riddles. Perhaps next time you can just spell out what you mean.
well, I do like that saying. matter of personal choice. Whenever a drawdown occurs, we ask the obvious questions: is it me, or is it the market? So lescor (and many others) struggles thru the first three weeks of January. Is there anything unusual that took place, aka outlier in the market? Or is it simply a random outlier of system(s) performance? Normal drawdown, or abnormal market circumstances? Statistical fact: average daily range for stock index markets from Dec 2010 thru Jan 2011 has been lowest levels since the 1980s. Twenty-plus years, two decades extreme. Electronic markets did not exist back then... the ES had not been invented, let alone NQ - ER2(TF) - YM to follow. Grains were not electronic. How could they be? There was no internet, no online trading. So considering the fact that VIX levels were hovering near 16 and intraday ranges were smallest since before the advent of internet online trading, could we assume market conditions are the variable in this equation? Hence the term, "markets are wrong" means they are abnormal, extreme, bastardized, etc. Pick your term, it's merely semantics. Meaning is all the same. Stock markets are abnormal to twenty-year extremes. Perhaps Friday's engulfing bar that erased ten of the last eleven dead-drift sessions higher marks an end to those doldrums. Time will tell, and soon.
It's all in how we define things. whatever phrase one prefers. "markets are temporarily out of synch with systematic approach" means the same thing. In the end it's all wording. Frog hairs to be split
I don't look at the market as right or wrong. It is what it is, the simpler I can make things the better I do. I try not to over think it. The market does what it does.
i totally agree with you as well as what Soros said: http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/soros-market-is-wrong/2009/01/14/id/327655 i noticed some so-called experienced trader has strong bias upon RTM and average down which OP seems to use in his trading(i stopped posting on ET for a while because i don't want wasting my time with those naive comments on RTM and average down, as these two strategies never fail in my CL trading so far, all my tiny loss which happened not more than four times in total were operational glitch), i believe many time traders lost money due to operation failure rather than strategy failure. i think OP will be back to green sooner than later.