Which would be the effects of Greece exiting the Euro? Which instruments would be affected? Euro S&P 500 DAX Do you have others in mind? And in which direction would they go? Please explain why you think things will go the way you expect.
too early to be betting, should be an agreement by Sunday night. It may be a piss poor agreement that just postpones the pain, but it will be out of the news for 6 months otherwise, if they ever did leave I think it would trash the euro which is exactly what the EU needs, especially to save Italy
are you another lefty who believes that the way to prosperity is to devalue the currency. it has never worked and never will.
With the notable exception that governments rarely pay off debt, they just roll it over and take out more.
they roll it over in order to say in power. to stay in power they need to continue to finance the public sector because the large public unions keep them in power. if government leaders were true patriots, with their countries best interest in mind, they would default. they would shrink the public sector and institute a simple tax code. instead in e.g. greece you have a brain drain where the most talented leave for Germany and northern europe.
If Grease exit, DAX will go down for at least 10% and it will be a golden opportunity to buy (same as S&P in 2008). QE will pop this up eventually.
Good point. I think its a domino thing everyone is worried about, first Greece, then Ireland and Portugal, then Italy, then Spain. I also think galvinlee888 might not be too far off. While contagion was real in 2008 its probably a pretty remote chance of it happening now, but the overreaction will be real in the Eurozone indexes.
if Greece exits, or is forced out, I doubt once everybody sees the kind of austerity it will finally have to endure will inspire much of an exit contagion. It just means bankruptcy. Finally! You are free from debt. But for a long while, you must be able to live with no credit. I'm pretty sure there will be some bullshit deal by Sunday night. I'm going into the weekend 100% short eur and net long usd.