Greg's Forex Journal

hey TGreg...do you still focus on the EUR/JPY? in a summary...what have you learned about it?its movement, range, tendencies, time it moves as related to US times and US markets...anything else you can say about this pair and why you really like to trade it?thanks...I am really looking at it...best to you!

 

Hi fxtrader,

Upon seeing this I would have referred you to Ivan's trade thread, but I see you've found it. I do plan on posting some my trades here after I close them, and feel free to ask questions, critique, discuss your trades, etc. if you wish.

Inow,

I'm pretty sure you asked me this in my last journal, and I probably said something about what kind of moves you can expect during Asian session.

What it really comes down to is consistent movement (which it has), and what you know about the pair. I have a better feel for the EUR/JPY than anything, followed by the EUR/USD - this is because I've had the most time with them.

The USD/CHF is the next of my major pairs, and the USD/JPY is still like spanish to me.

Coming week's agenda: going to try to trade Monday and/or Tuesday, but that is pending on a replacement hard drive coming for my computer, and any job search work I have. After that it looks a bit ugly until maybe later next week (at which point I'll be back in school).

This break really hasn't turned out like I hoped it would with trading, but hey sh** happens.

 

Did 30 min of screensaver and 30 min of analysis and drawing lines on my major pairs. It was really great to be back, and I was just looking in awe of everything I’ve figured out so far, and seeing several charts in my screensaver with fresh eyes brought me some very interesting perspectives and ideas.

I am still seeing several strategies, both in my screensaver charts and in real-time, that are worrying me as it is hard to pick entry and exit points. These trades, if I take them, will require both drawdown toleration and patience; I’m not sure if I’m ready for it yet, but I look forward to trying.

I think I will be trading tomorrow. I have my application documents very nearly done, so I will likely just be applying to a few internships per day – I’ve even found a “Summer Trading Analyst” position exclusively for Freshman and Sophomores, which I am very excited about. I’ve also ran some numbers, and I actually may still have $2500 at the start of summer. If I show potential and profitability, I can trade during the summer and try to get maybe $100 per week (maybe 13 hours, which can be done over weekend), I will have that at $3500. I will need $2500 next year, which actually allows a drawdown of 28% if I trade with everything. I won’t trade with everything, but the point is very important and this is very possible. I will take a “Summer Trading Analyst” position in NYC like it’s the last chocolate chip cookie, but this is definitely viable plan. Also, 18 months of foreign exchange trading will look far more impressive than my current 6 months, I can emphasize my skill and profitability, I will have more experience in business at school, which of course will all help me land a quality internship.

 

During Trading

Several months ago, I would have jumped onto the beautiful USD/JPY 3 hr spinners at the LOBF (also 1-2-3, other signals) but apparently I tuned in about two hours too late, and I will have to sit out and find a new entry.

7:05 pm EDT – EUR/JPY sell stop hit. Was playing PA, down trendline but missed the uptrend line until later, so it is also a triangle/flag play (meaning I pre-empted it, so watching 15 min close closely to see if close breakdown). Triangle/flag looks strong on hourly, 30 min, and 15 min – will have to watch bar closes intently to see if breakdown is legitimate, but signal confluence means this could be big, so good R:R and will stay in trade even though I wasn’t seeing the whole picture.

7:23 – stop moved to +5 pips.

7:30 – stopped out.

8 pm – taking a break, very much in awe of how many signals I’ve missed, especially a nice one that could have gotten me in on the USD/JPY run if I was watching it (still had the other trade open at the time).

8:30 – short USD/CHF, Risk: 12 pips (including 4 pip spread)

9:02 – stopped out for 4 pip loss (opposing signal)

10:03 – have to get back to other work, and really no trades jumping out at me anywhere. I have a buy stop on the USD/JPY which I will let sit, but otherwise no more trades. Back to make several charts later.

11:43 – I do not really understand the USD/JPY, but I took the long on the first sign of weakening of the collapsing panic. What I do understand is that most of my doji and double spinner examples came from this pair, the collapse gives the pullback to my 3 hr trendline I’ve been waiting for, the pullback faltered around my spinner closes, and the lack of change in spreads told me that the collapse wasn’t news. Total risk is 23 pips, if I am right however this trade may last a while (daily LOBF, 3 hr trendline and spinners). Because of this, I took it on my 3 hr smaller lot, and I will probably manage it mainly on the hourly.

12:08 – entered with rest of full size to reflect after placing stop at what would be a breakdown of a 15 min inside bar. Total average risk is down to about ten pips. Unfortunately I think my entry is a bit off and I should have put a buy stop several pips higher. Hmm.

New Rule: enter on limits and stops as much as possible (gives me a more strategy-based mindset, less likely to do something on a whim)

12:39 – probable bearish gartley alert, strong correction from .618, exited

12:41 – wow, that was really a dumb move. Impulsive, I got the ratios very wrong (no screensaver time in a while, had to go back and check), and I’m sure that this was probably the last good entry to the first impulse. Time to sit on my profit and sit on my hands. And there it goes to higher highs…

About two pips of profit averaged into both positions. What a wasted entry. This is both the potential and weakness that is Tradergreg. Anyway, profit of 0.1% on the day ($1 on $1,000). Three trades: +5, -4, +2. I see what stealthtrader was talking about when he talked about moving up his stops – many stopped out, a few losses, and the majority of profits from homeruns.

However, I know better than changing my stop on the last trade the way I did (the EUR/JPY I think was okay, even though it went back my way).

Attachment: Haven’t made any charts yet, but thought I’d post the USD/JPY because it’s interesting and embarrassing. Because it’s a 3 hr play, my stop should probably be below the second hump at its highest. Triangles are longs, squares were just me clicking around, the circle was when I got stopped out.

Edit: I regret to say that I was looking at a compressed 1 min because my entry and exit signals were overlapping my bars too much, but I wanted to keep tabs on them. Hmmm, another whim trade, and another rule broken.

 

Old Rule:

Temporary Rule: DO NOT OPEN THE 1 MIN CHART. OR THE 5 MIN CHART. EVERYTHING IS AT THE 15 MIN OR ABOVE.

New Part: I’M NOT KIDDING. NOT EVEN A COMPRESSED 1 MIN OR CHART FOR “CLARIFICATION.” NO 1 MIN OR 5 MIN, PERIOD.

I'm terrible at following directions. I really am.

 

interesting...why are you so against 1 and 5 minute charts? I think you are on to somwthing...too much noise?

 

I would probably term it more like too much information.

Look at what I did yesterday: I missed many signals I should have caught, and I completely missed something I should have caught in the USD/JPY - for one, I was expecting the rise to occur after probably 8-10 beautiful signals before it failed and I entered, again, and then it still made a new low.

At my entry, I was trying to enter at the bounce from an hourly classic TL, when it actually went as far down as my lower 3 hr emtl before starting its real move.

Furthermore, it took another bounce off another important support and daily level.

Now honestly, I still think there is a great chance that the upmove continues like I have been expecting, but my analysis is so close yet so far off.

So I ask myself this: if my analysis and information processing of the hourly is not as good as it should be, why in the hell would I add 60x the information?

That may have actually give me the motivation to cut the 15 min for a while, but I will have to see after a few more sessions.

I'm looking to trade next thursday, probably won't be back before then. I like the questions.

 

Took an ill-advised long on the AUD/USD (3 hr account). It was placed with a good entry point on a formation, and had a good R:R because of it, but I was unsure of it and shouldn’t have taken it – I couldn’t decide if it was with the trend or was countertrend, so I really should have sat out and/or let a few more bars develop.

Now that I’m not really working toward getting income from trading during the year, I think I might no longer use the 3 hr strategy. I like the free time, and it just doesn’t seem necessary. I plan on watching most of the day Tuesdays, trading most of the day Thursdays, and fitting in screensaver time and whatever else when possible.

That being said, I am very busy this week. Also, now that I have a fresh hard drive I have to send my computer in to fix the Ethernet adaptor, so I will be without a computer for a week. My next one will be a Mac.

Fortunately, all my images are on my flash, so I will loan a computer and have the screensaver.

I may be able to install Oanda on it, but if I do I will only watch.

Good trading.

 

very good start buddy...

1 min-5 min charts tend to be noisy, don't listen to scalpers, they are completely random.

Keep workin and swinging the 15 min charts

 

Thanks for the support, Jaytrade. I'm not sold on the idea that the 1 min and 5 min are random, though.

For one, I think that every timeframe gives clues to the next one (so 5 min gives clues to the 15 min, 15 min to hourly, etc.).

Also, one of my rules says to trade on the market's dominant trend. Sometimes, and with volatility especially, that trend is at times on the 1 min and 5 min.

That being said, I plan on ignoring the 1 min and 5 min for a while.

Overall, though, I think this rule sums it up pretty well:

5. Trade under the impression that most intraday price action is useless. Wait for the moves that have a high probability of being meaningful. These are called setups.

I use this mindset to encourage being selective, but say if there are only a few great trades per day than a higher percentage of the 1 min is useless than the corresponding 15 min.

After sending my computer off to get a new motherboard, it is back and I am ready to begin market stuff again (43 hours total shipping 1000+ miles each way and replacing parts from HP!). I am disappointed with HPs parts, but I am very impressed with their customer service.