Greenspan sees housing recovery in 2009

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by turkeyneck, Oct 10, 2008.

  1. This is the same man that created all of these problems. He has no credibility at this point and it boggles my mind that anyone actually cares about what he thinks.
  2. AK100


    I might have missed it (I dount it though) but why hasn't this clown been summoned to congress for a god old questioning?
  3. I stumbled across this rare,unseen footage the other day.

    It's taken from the White House kitchens way back in 2001 while Bush jr. and Greenspan were upstairs talking about their strategy going forward........
  4. Did Greenspan mention the US national debt in the same breath, or does he wants us to forget about it?
  5. ScottD



    Read more carefully. Greenspan actually writes:

    "More conclusive signs of pending home price stability are likely to become visible in the first half of 2009.'"

    He does not see a housing recovery in 1H2009.
  6. Possibly only if propped up with taxpayer money... likely not even then.

    Don't be surprised if "stability" comes in 2010 or later... maybe even 2014.
  7. acrary


    He's probably referring to the resets of subprime loans. The subprime reset mess will dry up in June/July with very little in the pipeline. Alt A loans will be with us through at least 2012, however.
  8. 1st we need sales of existing homes to pick up. we have one month of that. Then we need inventories to come down substantially. this will take a long time. THEN prices will stabilize.

    I bet its 2010, then flat for years.
  9. aresky


    Friday, October 10, 2008 9:33 AM

    Alan Greenspan said the U.S. housing market will begin to recover in the first half of 2009, according to an article he wrote for Emerging Markets magazine published Friday.

    Greenspan wrote that the recent slowing in the rate of decline in U.S. home prices is the first positive note in the year-long trauma and that eventually, frozen credit markets will thaw "as frightened investors take tentative steps towards reengagement with risk."

    "More conclusive signs of pending home price stability are likely to become visible in the first half of 2009," he wrote.

    Once the housing market finds it footing, markets will be able to tackle the core issues of the credit crisis.

    But a big question remains, he said: "How much overall deleveraging is going to be required to induce global investors to again become committed holders, at modest interest rates, of the liabilities of the world's financial intermediaries?"

    Beyond that, the amount of additional bank capital required to stabilize the financial system remains in question as well.

    Greenspan said one sign that the necessary level of bank capital had been reached will be when the U.S. dollar Libor/OIS spread is restored to its pre-crisis level of 15 basis points or less, down from its current level of around 300 basis points. The spread expresses the expected future three-month premium based on London interbank offered rates (Libor) over anticipated central bank rates, or Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates -- a key measure of financial market stress.

    At the beginning of 2007 Greenspan predicted recession in 2008
    #10     Oct 10, 2008