I wish this were true, but I think the recent bounce in the homies has more to due with the tax bill that would allow them to "carry-back" taxes paid up to 4 years ago when posting a loss. This will help them to "smooth-out" their balance sheets. What does this do for inventory? Nothing. Theres nothing in these bills that will get people moving back to the RE markets. I don't see much downward pressure on inventories. Why not? (a) Sales at record breaking historical lows (means less inventory coming off the market) (b) Forclosures and NoDs at record breaking historical highs (means increasing inventory, about 6 months out) (c) tougher lending standards (means artificially reduced demand) (d) Downward pressure on rents (due to increased rental supply due to decreased sales) and (e) new development inventory continuing to rise as projects started in '06 and '07 complete and hit the market. In short, inventory will be up, demand will be down, and that means prices must fall, with or without a credit crunch or recession.
While I certainly don't claim to have the kind knowledge that Greenspan or any of those guys do, I do sell real estate for a living. I can tell you right now that it's gonna be a while before we see aturn around. There is so much inventory, it's insane. Lenders have also became UNREASONABLY tight, I fully agree that standards to need to be tightened but the bullshit going on right now is nothing short of arbitrary. When they get back in touch with reality, inflation slows a little, and gas goes down some we will see a pick up. The media also has been very very negative, which I fully understand. But the sheep out there watch the evening news and the doom and gloom makes them scared to buy. IT will pass though, all things do.
Bernanke hasn't been right about a F'in thing so far either, yet he comes on and EVERYONE in the U.S. stops what their doing and tune him and during his testimony, seems like the market moves on every word. One dumbass country.
didn't people give him hell when last year around this time when we where booming and he said the US had a chance at recession in the next year? I think he said that comment in toy co also, market dumped and everyone told him to keep his mouth shut. Looks like A) he was right and B)he cant win either way