No one can get loans, tell me where the growth will come from http://macrospeculations.blogspot.com/2009/06/credit-crunch.html
And the proposed cap & trade legislation will only exacerbate the situation. Much less money available for consumers. Ripple effect to China and India as they need a consuming country such as us to export to. And if you are an entrepreneur why would you ever expand operations in this country? He says unemployment to 11%. With cap & trade in the mix maybe it is more like 12% to 15%. Not to worry tho as you will have "free" health care.
Also think about all those savers. They will listen to CNN and CNBC and all those networks and say "hey...the news says the recession is over...I'm going to take my lifesavings now and start a business" Then after 6 months and their money is gone and they have no sales, they are back to work, only now unemployment is higher and harder for people to get jobs. I think this Crisis is going to suck the savings out of alot of peoples wallets....well...the few people who actually have savings.
A report was just released yesterday in Canada stating how credit markets are freeing up and loans are up in Canada. They expect increased auto sales for the rest of 2009 due to lower pricing and ease of loan approval. They stressed the fact that loans will not be given out to high default risk candidates however. It does not look like it's that difficult to get a loan in Canada right now. I heard this report on the radio yesterday while driving home; I'll try to find a link.
Its just a way of saying this, most people cant get loans, anecdotal evidence is inferior to macro evidence. Net bank credit is not rising and tight standards are still rising
Growth is coming from no where, the only way this economy is going to experience any kind of rapid "V" shaped recovery is with another BUBBLE. Seems over the last 20 years of expansion in the US was based on bubbles. Everyone is expecting some quick "V" shaped recovery and will very surprised that over the next 10 years this economy is going to experience ZERO growth. EVERYONE is anticipating a bottom in housing to jump start our slowing economy but to me thats just stupid talk. All of sudden were going to fix housing and create new growing economy, based on what???? The real estate market is still inflated, putting an invisible line to keep housing prices propped up with all these federal created programs is not creating a free market environment. They have to let the market create the price, creating programs and slowing the foreclosure process is certainly not the way. Do not listen to anyone who thinks the economy is turning around, its not, you might see a quarter here or there of growth but in the long run this economy is going no where quick.
How to create growth ? Invest finally into infrastructure ! The US is in such a bad shape, it´s not anymore fun to walk as a tourist through neglected, degenerated urban environments ! One example : Detroit ! Oh boy what an ugly town ! http://www.seedetroit.com/pictures/mcsweb/
America´s most miserable cities in pictures : http://www.forbes.com/2008/01/29/de...kb_0130miserable_slide_2.html?thisSpeed=15000