What is more important is the timing of his comments. Just as in Feb 27th the markets will react very negatively over the next few days. He knows it and once again his name and opinion will remain relevant + the $$$ he commands for his speaking circuit. Sit back and watch it unfold. FOMC + quad witching is and explosive mix. JMHO
That was just the usual greenspeak/doubletalk. Nevertheless he didn't contradict himself, he just said it is not imminent, that doesn't mean he can not adjust the probability of his expectation to a higher value, and he might expect it in the future with a higher degree, but not right now.. Thus not IMMINENT. But Thundy is right, putting a numerical value on the probability of recession is just plain silly. He should say we are going to have one or not. End of story...
he said its not imminent last night but then this morning he tells the wall street journal its now greater than one third that it happens this year.