greek election

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by weezy, Jun 15, 2012.

  1. weezy


    ok if the Syriza party wins Sunday's election- S&P have to sell off.
    what are the odds Syriza rides the wave of disent and picks up enough votes to win...
  2. Syriza isn’t the problem. I don’t expect to wake up Monday and hear Syriza won so Greece is leaving the Euro. This is more about how much more money (blood) can the Greek vampires suck out of Germany so there is no default.
  3. weezy


    of course. greece wants more euros from merkel who holds the purse strings. BUT if Syriza does win- spooz are selling off-

    can we all agree that the euro was a failed experiment?
  4. syriza is not going to win, intrade showing new democracy 75% chance to win highest % of vote
  5. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    It's not about who wins but whether a majority government coalition can be formed.

    Regardless, the S+P won't drop because they'll be free Benny Bucks for everyone! Captain CTRL-P is on the case!
  6. I am worry about the greek vote now.Becaue it's difficult to predict the market direction.
  7. They wont win 'outright',
    new democracy wont be able to win outright either!

    So itl basically be like this-

    New democ (Centre right( = 23%
    Syzria (Moderate left) = 20%
    Pasok (Medium left) = 8%
    Communist (Extreme left) = 6%
    Neo-Nazi (extreme right) = 4%

    So no one party will be able to form a government.

    Way greek politics work is 1st winner has a chance (approx 24hours to form a coaltion),
    if they cant 2nd winners have 24hours chance,
    if they cant 3rd winners have 24hours chance.

    If none of the top 3 can do it though then re-election is called.

    And so whilst new-democ will likely get a few higher percentage of vote,
    syrizia would refuse to form coaltion with them and pasok/communist wont either as they are left wings vs deom of right.

    However if syrizia then get their 24hours chance to form coaltion, they are closer to other left wing parties.

    Tbh if you didnt know this PLUS havent been factoring this in to every trade you've made over the last 2weeks based on this,
    then you seriously need to stop trading and get a new job!! lol
  8. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    What are you worried about? The central banks are going to jointly intervene. Free printing for everyone.

    Ironically, the bearish case NOW is if the coalition is formed, and there's NO intervention.
  9. No coalition. -12 overnight on ES, max.