...and the FED is not expansive anymore on its balance sheet (for the next foreseeable time), that is more limiting for the equities. I expect not a bullmarket before 2024 or late 2023 therefore. But I do not speculate on that, and I am also more short term orientated trader.
IMO if anything you will see somewhat higher pressures on inflation, interest rates, and returns to capital than have historically been the case. It will probably be subtle, but observed in the form of inflation averaging 3-4% rather than 2% over a couple of decades, and the next few bull cycles being less impressive (and bear cycles a bit longer / more damaging) than we got used to during the 2010s. Sounds fun.
Damn it, I really friggin' hate that word: BABY BOOMER. That word (or words) have been in circulation as long as I can remember. It was haphazardly thrown around when I was in my teens, and I'm already in my 50s! So who are these children of baby boomers? Gen-x, which I belong to? Gen-Y, gen-z, or whatever that comes next? Baby boomers, whoever they are, are just nonsense that Wall Street and your idiotic politicians cooked up to enslave you. Don't believe their bullshit.
From a UK perspective - perhaps similar to US - I suspect that the value of the (mainly property / real estate) assets to be transferred, will have lower value over time as increased interest rates limit the affordability of those who will eventually buy them. However, personal debt is higher than ever, so it is quite possible that some of the assets held by cash-poor asset-rich boomers, will simply be liquidated by asset-poor heavily-indebted gen x/y beneficiaries to reduce personal debt.
%% HIGH debt levels lead to panic selling; like the old pattern\ chicken running around with its head[dead] cut off+ slinging red blood everywhere. Good thing for careful RE investors, real estate does not decay like options @ all; real estate throws off rental income , or farm income or hunt lease income or oil well royalty or hay income , graze in come or coal + gas royalty........................................................... Not a prediction; sorry UK may or may have missed a tax cut\ i live in a low US state with no income tax+ lawgivers enacted a one day of no sales tax for many items
Were nominal wealth transfer from one generation to the next to go down rather than up, that would be evidence of a serious, underlying problem. So even had there not been a baby boom following the end of WWII amplifying the subsequent inter-generational wealth transfer, I would expect the same "Gee Whiz" headline to hold true with only the amount reduced.
fair enough, and your last point is more or less my point. it's only 68 trillion if it can be sold for that amount -- which i don't believe is possible.
From a macro perspective, one expects an increase in real estate to be dumped on the market at some point, but it wouldn't be all at once. Although the Baby Boom might be arbitrarily defined as say a five year period from 1945 to 1950 the death of these boomers will be spread out over more than a decade. They won't all die at once!
Interesting thought. But I think its difficult to asses using only 1 input. Suppose for example AI really gets going( or not and it stays a fax), leading to a far larger productivity per capita.
Baby boomers gave birth to Gen X. Gen x gave birth to millennials. Millennials gave birth to Gen Z. What will they call Gen-Z kids? The LGBTQSR!+JKU generation.