Archers aim for perfection. Traders aim for no perfection. If you are right 40 to 50% of the time, you are considered very good. Your trade plan should be adjusted accordingly.
it is year ending and all institutions have to declare accounts and performance so they try to window dress
Yes. There is a way. You have to trade large enough in order to move the market. An army of math wizards would be able to predict the market if they are backed up by enough capital to move the markets.....But then again, so would an army of morons. But if you are not backed up by enough capital to move the markets then the best that you can do is to attempt to predict what the ones with the most amount of capital are most likely to do with their capital in the future.
. Can the ADX accomplish what you wish to do... have seen several trading systems that incorporate specific rules for the ADX indicator (described here). Some of them require that it's magnitude be above 25 (or sometimes 30) to indicate that a trend is present and therefore it is okay to take entry signals in the direction of the trend. Lower numbers suggest that the market is ranging.
Mr Agi1, do you get the constant urge to feel vindicated (eg. need to be right)? Trying to predict the market, especially if you're a beginner, is a futile attempt. The market won't let you anyway. But if you allow yourself to follow the market instead, it might let you in on the detail.