Great Year So Far, But Am I Just Lucky?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by dilly323, Mar 23, 2008.

  1. dilly323


    Hi all,

    Since the beginning of the year, I've turned $10,000 into my current balance of $62,000.

    I did this by following intra-day trends on individual securities, rarely holding overnight, and cutting losses quickly.

    I managed to be on the right side of a few big moves in the financial sector. For example, I caught ETFC when it bounced from $2, and I shorted BSC at $52 and covered at $35. I also made some good trades playing both sides of FSLR.

    The most challenging part was without a doubt, overcoming the Patter Day Trade rule. When I was under 25K, it was very hard to take losses that I should have, knowing that it meant I would be out of the game for a few days--until my trades rolled off.

    I have been trading off and on for 7 years, but never as seriously as now, and never really profitable until now.

    So, what I'd really like to know is...

    How can I tell if this is a lucky fluke, or if I actually...just maybe...have what it takes to be a profitable trader?

    Thanks, Happy Easter
  2. nice job. I was short BSC from 66 to 35. You probably have some skill.
  3. cold


    I am sorry blokey but if you must ask this question then it is luck

    a trader who understands WHY his is up and HOW his edge works

    would never ask such a question

    sorry to bring you bad news

    ok now I am leaving ET for real
  4. jazzsax


    Pull out 32K, leave yourself with 30, and keep trading. Keep building that balance out and doing the same.

    If you keep it up, you have what it takes.
  5. Let's see:

    1. Not going against the trend.

    2. Cutting losses.

    3. Letting winners run.

    4. Rarely exposing yourself to overnight risk.

    Doesn't sound like luck to me.

    Keep up the good work!
  6. There is most definetly luck involved in your current gains but that does not mean you have absolutly no skill. That will be determined by your ability to keep your gains. Probably the hardest thing to do is keep your gains when you are feeling confident.

    The experience of others would dictate that the best thing to do in this situation is instead of increasing your risk exposure at this point you should reduce it and perhaps set aside some of those gains.
  7. dilly323


    Thanks for the replies. I have no doubt that the cumulative knowledge here spans centuries in trading experience.

    This sounds like a logical advice, but a difficult thing to do. My knee-jerk reaction is to keep everything on the table. I should probably aim for a slow and steady pace though. Thank you.

  8. There is luck involved with everything.
  9. Some people here are worth listening to, but dont be afraid to question everything people say. My advice might sound good but personally i am barely profitable and I work days at a bulk food store. Dont expect much more from 95% + of people here.
  10. If you continue to put together a solid track record you can get a job at some good prop shops that will give you a lot of tools. Thats something to think about in the future if you want to go that route.
    #10     Mar 23, 2008