What so many people fail to consider fully, or at all, is the tremendous impact that environmental problems and human overpopulation are going to have. We have been so successful at staving off disaster that we think it can go on forever. It's kind of like having a market PE of 100 and saying it's OK because it is different this time. We can stretch it out for quite a while, but that will only make the subsequent problems more severe. No big deal for an old guy like me, but my grandkids are going to have a tough slog and, like most Americans they are soft. m
is there info similar to this that breaks down the fallacies in the govt. unemployment numbers??? i know real unemployment is higher than the 5.6% they are touting. seems like they only count those that are collecting benefits and not those who have fallen off. i've heard the real rate is appx 11%.
andrasnm: What you're pointing out is probably likely to occur with two exceptions. 1) The time frame may be a little later than you indicate. 2) The structure of the reasons for the Great Depression II may be different than you stated. Otherwise, shorting the dollar is probably a good choice. However, this econimic meltdown will effect other countries/currencies as well so going both long and short, long and short EUR/USD is a better trade plan. Perhaps this is exactly what Warren Buffett and George Soros see happening that is why they are shorting the dollar. I am beginning to think the GDII will be triggered by Middle East events and will be a snowball effect similar to the Asian Currency crisis, only, this time the USA/USD will sucked down to Hell before this too sorts itself out. In terms of effect it will go Middle East (Arabic/Islamic terrorism) > USA/USD > Japan/JPY-China/yuan > EUR and so forth. It will definitely be a dominoes effect. A key element is debt replacing true structural growth and strength. Cheers! Sam
Probably a more likely scenario will be that US remains in a stagnant period because of our enormous public and personal debt levels, yet other parts of the world may continue to grow strongly -- most likely Japan + China, and perhaps even India further down the line. Eventually the huge population levels in Asia will surpass America in terms of total consumption level and contribution to world growth, and our troubles by then may not be the disaster to the world we all now imagine. JMO on the brighter side of things
illiquid: The problem with Japan, as I understand it, is that its banks buy shares of public companies out of the Nikkei. You know what happened when US banks once did that. Stock market crash 1929/Great Depression. gsr
Cross ownership between banks and other corporations has always been a problem, but with foreign appetites for Japanese equities growing, they may be able to unload those shares onto willing buyers -- it's an old issue that has long since been priced into the Nikkei by now imo.
"convincingly displacing the dollar." Nothing will ever replace the dollar and if you traded forex you'd know that. Price differential may kick in, but no one well be convinced EUR is replacing USD. EUR is struggling to keep itself from imploading. "the government will have to begin printing money in unprecedented volume by the coming, long hot summer of 2005." The government will NEVER print money like that. "He will then sit on Wall Street in sackcloths and ashes, but it will be way too late." No one will EVER sit on Wall Street in sackcloth and ashes. Dennis, are you some kind of an economist/analyst? Because you certainly are not a trader. Sam
I'd think experience trading in any market would lead one to conclude that any weakness/strength of a market can go much further than previously imaginable -- especially currencies. Any number of events can contribute to the dollar plunging sharply (e.g. nuclear terrorism), and even a further global sentiment shift away from the dollar (OPEC officially pricing oil in euros or other basket) would eat away at the "reserve currency" premium the dollar still holds. Just because you've survived a few trades without stops doesn't mean the market will always snap back to prior ranges -- be careful out there!
illiquid, don't be a dumbass, alright? whathisname made a statement that the EUR will replace the USD. it's utter ignorance. He stated it because he doesn't trade jack cheese. Analysts/economists, even many desk traders, don't know what time of day it is when it comes to trading, currencies or otherwise. The statistics of 99% of traders getting bagged in the markets would indicate that very few people do know anything. I did say that, should those events happen that you depicted, the USD will have a differential price movement, yes, even a severe one, but the USD won't be replaced as that guy said: Only screaming mimis would state that. And, as far me "surviving a few trades without stops" you still don't get it. "Be careful out there"?? Buddy, you don't NEED to be anything "out there" when you know what you are doing, and WHY you are doing it, and when. Lemme give you an example, alright? On yet another EU rate cut rumor, EUR/USD fell to a new floor of 1.2074 last Friday. It fell from 1.2363, nearly 300 point vertical drop. I opened only long trades all the way to the bottom - and closed each one a winner making profit - no losses - using no stop losses. At the bottom most traders would place a long trade there, but most traders lose. What did I do? Based on probability I opened a short position. Even one of my trading buddies was yelling at me to "open only long trades!" I knew it was going to go straight up, but I did what I wanted to do. I didn't do what the market dictated to do. At around 10AM, later that morning, I closed the trade with a huge profit. Again, I used no stops. So pls, don't indicate that I don't know what I am doing. Most (loser) traders run to avoid trading nightmares, well, I AM the nightmare of trading. Thank you, Sam
Most (loser) traders run to avoid trading nightmares, well, I AM the nightmare of trading. Thank you, Sam __________________ Ohhh boy another successful trader on ET, BEHAHAAAAHHHA