My Gold trade is in the toilet. I have a lot of it and its not going anywhere. Just $14 lower from where Gold is right now is my line in the sand @ $1283. This is the monthly Fib 38.2% retracement of the entire bull move from 2001 to 2011. This is the kind of support that usually makes me smile but 2 false breakouts recently are not a good sign. If we get down there and the support starts creaking I'm dumping the whole lot because next stop is Goldman's call @ 1080 and even that looks flimsy and we might go to 61.8% @ $890
You got excited early my friend. Good to acknowledge, when the trend is against you, best plan for worst case. Always when you take such calls, market should confirm it on price action.
Thanks amigo. Appreciate your guidance. Planning for worst case scenario is underway as stated. Line in the sand is $1283 as in previous post.
Gold: (repeat) I'm in it a lot, going nowhere, opportunity cost alone is huge not counting the frustration of failed breakouts. Argue or angry with the market? No way. Pissed off and blaming others? No way. I'm a lone warrior, no gurus, but do read their analyses. So the trigger is pulled 100% on my own responsibility, my own analysis. In this case with Gold I've gone against Goldman Sachs, Dennis Gartman, Harry Dent and Robert Prechter, the latter 3 calling for Gold $700. So right out the starting gate I noo I was alone. OK, that said, and put aside - I'm up against a monster and I have no army. Nevertheless the fight will continue till the support @ $1283. Why persist? Because that is the level below which I am WRONG and the analysis becomes untenable and indefensible - and worse, it becomes blind HOPE. Is there a degree of Hope in the level at $1283? Yes, but this is based on solid evidence on the Coefficient of Restitution of a monthly Fibonacci support level. So $1283 it is.
Gold: Inverse Head & Shoulder on 4H, neckline @ $1323. Pattern not worth a damn unless the neckline is taken out. Minimum target is $1360 - if pattern fires!
Thanks for the input, let's see your weekly with your explanation pls - would appreciate it very much. I'll do the same and we can compare. Thanks again
Here's my weekly with only important stuff showing to reduce clutter green line is 200 ema overhead resistance. Arrows show positive divergence at the respective lows. Macd trendline breakout already occurred weeks ago Fibonacci grid from 2001 low to 2011 top shows the 38.2% Fib support @ approx. $1283. Major trendline from 2001 thru' 2005 goes right under current price action trouble uploading the chart at the moment, internet pbs due to heavy rains - will push it thru' asap
+ve Divergence is not strictly the correct term here because the lows after the 1st one are a tad higher, but I'm also taking into account the higher high on Macd versus Price's lower high to add to the equation. All this buildup of latent energy is due to the support @ 38.2% - but it might still not be enough to arrest the drop. Once the energy is used up Price could drop like a stone to the 50% Fib @ 1085 = Goldman Sachs call for Gold.