Great Depression 2 underway as of July 25, 2014

Discussion in 'Trading' started by AfterLOS, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Great Depression 2: Warren Buffett


    Warren is ignoring his own advice that has stood the test of time - things are going extremely well now, so well in fact that when you combine it with the general atmosphere outside Berkshire which is S&P will never go down its a new era etc.,

    invokes Warren's advice = SELL, sell, sell, retreat to a bear cave and enjoy your spoils of war.

    But will he follow this? Heck no. Why?

    Because BEAR destroys bullmarket gurus like a knife thru' butter and in Warren's case will take the one thing away from him that he most values = MONEY & prestige = both bogus items in opinion of AfterLOS because beings are by fundamental nature devoid of complexity and material wealth.

    Bye bye Warren :)

     
    #231     Sep 10, 2014
  2. Great Depression 2: Japan

    7.1% contraction = deflation acceleration

     
    #232     Sep 10, 2014
  3. Great Depression 2: Lesson in Sentiment applied to Euro

    Everybody hates the Euro now = only 4% bulls = 96% bears

    So how would ET gurus view this? = SELL, SELL, SELL :D:D:D:D:D:D

    Wrong!!!

    Take short profits and wait for signal to go LONG

     
    #233     Sep 10, 2014
  4. Great Depression 2: beneficiary of GD2 is Dollar or Gold????

    If Gold breaks down its going to $900 so it would be out. If Gold is out, then its the dollar.

    But sentiment right now is sooooo bearish gold. Does the market ever give the majority's wish?

    More thought on this one over the next few days

    --------------------------------

    Regarding the dollar though just before the 2007 top in stocks the dollar had been crashing bigtime for a long time.

    The sentiment against the dollar was bigtime bearish, then came these 2 magazine covers calling for Dollar DEATH

    Aha! AfterLOS knew immediately = get ready, dollar bottom soon

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    Recently before the dollar rally began there was a lot of talk about reserve currency status being taken away and going to Russia+China+Iran = Dinar backed by gold or some such talk

    = another hint



     
    #234     Sep 10, 2014
  5. #235     Sep 10, 2014
  6. Dr_BVCC

    Dr_BVCC


    As i said in my post if 1240 breaks then 1354 is off the table. No chart. It is a calculation based on the monthly chart.

    Not in any trades on it, i was only saying that based on my analysis that i thought it would go to that number as long as 1240 holds.


    Not looking so good anyway atm.
     
    #236     Sep 10, 2014
  7. @AfterLOS

    You have several points in your post.
    Looking at a latter one on time equality I posted (not here at ET) and interesting note
    The high was 2011 (ES sept) on Wed 3 Sept
    Sunday 7 Sept was 2011 days after the low in March 09
    (Fri, Mar 6, 2009)

    The low was 665.75 ES and 666 SPX
     
    #237     Sep 10, 2014
  8. All I see are numbers and technicals. Don't really expect the world to go down even if fed starts raising rates. If it was easy to pick the top I'd be a millionaire. Will prolly go and hit another high. The public wasn't in the rally.
     
    #238     Sep 10, 2014

  9. All you're telling me is that you are a member of the HERD = YAWN
     
    #239     Sep 11, 2014
  10. Great Depression 2: Dow Jones reversal is the ONLY factor that will start the avalanche = GD2

    All previous market tops had COMPLACENCY in spades. How about this TOP that I'm working on?
    If you study history, you know that no one thought the price of tulips, houses, or stocks would ever go down

    See for thyselves: current TOP's crowd think

    Everyone believes the U.S. stock market has reached a permanently high plateau.

    Last week’s Investors Intelligence survey showed bearish sentiment at its lowest since 1987 (13.3%). In fact, short-sellers have nearly disappeared along with the few remaining bears. In addition, the VIX is at historic lows (near 12), which reflects investor complacency.

    Put another way, almost no one believes this market will go down.

    Morgan Stanley analysts call conservatively for SPX 3,000

    University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel also made a prediction: On CNBC, he said that the Dow will be at 18,000 before the end of the year.

    Dow has shrugged off all geopolitical problems, high debt, low market volume, high complacency = no fear sentiment readings = low Vix ....... and other warning signs
     
    #240     Sep 11, 2014