The Lord works in mysterious ways. You Sir have received the 2nd LIKE I've given here. A LIke is akin to one's WORD - AfterLos don't give rare gems willy-nilly. A magnificent post in many ways
I'm going to re-read your post carefully, aquarian and then have a good look at your charts, give it all some thought and answer today itself. Thank you kindly for posting here - you've made my month of August.
My orientation is that of the combination of Investing and trading the latter no lower than 1H timeframe. I consider shortselling for the duration of a trend to also be investing. My preference is to get in on a trend on the DAILY as early as possible and ride it - easier said than done. Gold solid 10-Baht bars and 1-Baht mini-bars along with silver expressly for the reasons you mentioned re: grocer. I keep around 200k Baht in cash at all times ($7k) + $10k in USD 100$ denomination = emergency fund for food etc., in case the ATM network shuts down during a BANKING collapse as I am expecting when the downwave gets going in earnest. Thailand will not get into confiscation of Gold. USG most likely will. The place where I currently live has been selected in advance for its remoteness and aesthetic beauty but its 24 Km from the city center so those without an auto cannot live here = sufficiently remote to be out of the loop of any roving gangs and thugs when the Economy nosedives and unemployment hits 35%+ Gloomy? No, you do it once. Its called a one-shot preparation for the worst case scenario and then FORGEDDABOUT IT
Put your monthly chart on Log scale, then run a trendline thru' Dec 2001 & July 2005 and extend it. Now have a look at the hard right edge. What do you see?
Re Log scale monthly. I've added my comments to you chart. (apologies). I use linear not log scale as the compression on the top area of the chart I find to be misleading. One author stated his reasoning in that people think in prices not percentages. Of course one should be flexible and open-minded and it is what works best for each individual chartist in that chartist's experience that is important. So that isn't really important - what works works. Certainly your 1227 could be argued support but the shape of the rise exponential and the type of fall sharp and now (2013 forward) sideways, could prove to be either accumulation leading to reversal or consolidation leading to continuation. I'm not arguing either way. As mentioned gold futures markets are heavily manipulated and funds swings to the hot trades can make mince meat of chart in a two-4 year time frame. I am not in your position - you have the cash reserves and the physical and your contingency plans/escape places. If I was I would offer to you that you could make money in the short term (even in the short side) with you long physical gold as a hedge and if those short term trades are profitable then use the profits to add to your physical.
OK aquarian1 thanks, let's clear up things on the monthly first before moving to the daily timeframe ... Your blue trendline is correct but I didn't show one because its a done deal, already broken, so to reduce chart clutter yes the 2nd red trendline was to show some support at current price. You say its weaker support than peaks, yes agreed, that's why I have the peak support at $1227 (not as good as the March 2008 peak but better than nothing) - so its this red trendline + 1227 support combo I was referring to Agree with the exponential curve and no channel rise. Note also that the entire consolidation is taking place at the 38.2% Fib support for 2001 to 2011 grid 50% Fib support is @ $1085 - and coincidentally this level was Goldman Sach's call for Gold a few weeks ago - not sure about current status. If all my mentioned supports fail , we are going there first - March 2008 peak is just right under the 50% fib
aquarian1, pls have a look at the weekly chart for Gold and observe the following and tell me your thoughts and\or interpretation focus on the consolidation section on right see the huge +ve divergence developing on let's say MACD? All this is happening at the 38.2% Fib support. Does not mean the support won't fail but ....... Same trendline as in monthly drawn 2001 thru' 2005 is right at the low of current prices as the weekly trendline offers more prices to pass thru' contact points
aquarian1 have a look pls at daily chart Gold Log scale trendline from Oct 2012 thru' Nov 2012 has been taken out it appears - this trendline offered solid resistance in March 2014 Macd trendline also used to show that momentum ran into resistance at the line, then broke out, then trendline used as support and now moved north Also note that the 200-day sma is offering some support. None of this might be enough - but its what I have to work with
On arithmetic scale on Gold daily the same downtrendline I mentioned earlier is broken easily to the upside and prices have moved far away from it
I know youre not looking for my opinion but you do see that gold isnt that weak priced in the depressed economies/currencies of europe and japan. But the USD and US economy is the best game in town and gold doesnt compare well. That is tough to work around and that gold chart breaks down in most opinions that i read. But, you know this. Best wishes.