HI AfterLOS, Very good thread. Well researched and thought out with lots of supporting articles and charts. (You give me hope there is intelligent life on earth! LOL) In any case, your thread is just what needed to pick up my spirits after a moron attack on a thread of mine in another forum. Good stuff! Thanks.
I started following your thread today. I have done up a gold chart (used cash) Should I post it or is that off-topic?
Post anything you like here , all your thoughts and especially your analyses are welcome. You see, often one gets interiorized into one's own thinking - a different perspective is one of the most welcome aspects of being on a board
I would esp. like to see your Gold chart + any analysis and thoughts you have on long-term target and direction
Let me start by saying my orientation is that of trading. If I had enough money to accumulate physical gold I would use trading profits and purchase the physical. As I believe an enormous crash is coming that will make 1929 look like a day in the park, the longer term perspective is in one way a no-brainer (have what you can) and in another very difficult (people selling for food). I used to trade gold futures contracts in 2001 and there wasn't real time info on fills - or price! - sometimes it took an hour. Long sad story short I was stolen on a long position with a protective stop miles, miles out of the money (away from the current price) in a single trade overnight from a dishonest floor trader. I could getting no help from my broker and wrote off the theft to dishonest and manipulated markets - but I stopped trading it. I did have 5 one ounce gold coins - but had to sell them for rent money. What I'm leading to is that in a major collapse with cascading margin calls, then people defaulting on debts, losing jobs, their lines of credit closed etc. they still want to buy food and pay rent and will sell their coins if they have to. Selling gold if they have to and gold falling at first. Also perhaps later stage 2, currencies could implode precious metals skyrocket. So if a one ounce gold coin sell for $1,200 it could go to any price $4,000, $6,000 $10,000 and people lining up to trade and trade imploding paper cash for metal. But it's very hard for you grocer to make change for $10,000. So then you need silver 1/10 of an ounce (or pieces of eight! LOL - cut your 1 ounce coin into eight! So long way of saying gold could go to anything - and the govt will come with guns to take it if they can. I don't have any of the following but I would have cash at home weapons (not easy where I live) then a survival place with a farm enough to grow my own food and some way to stop roving armed gangs from taking it. Yikes gloomy!!
Ok really the above is a bit useless so here are the charts. If I traded gold - which I don't currently - I would focus on chart two. Bottom line wait until the triangle is broken either up or down. I think its a cloudy picture right now and would stand aside at this time (Disclaimer:-nothing is trading advice all is educational only. yahda yahda yahda)
You asked about longer term and as you can tell from my long-winded post - it's a bit of a mug's game to guess now IMO - except for coins at your well-armed survival camp LOL! This is the best I can do. Essentially big money has left. But if 1400 can be broken and it holds above that, then media will get in, and so on and then the big money looking for the new hot game. (Disclaimer:-nothing is trading advice all is educational only. yahda yahda yahda)
Yes, that too, see reason in chart below. Explanation for those who might not get it (don't worry, no criticism from me) ..... credit boom from 1974 to 2014 dwarfs the credit boom of the 1920s by a whopping amount. Therefore the Debt Deflation that will result this time will dwarf that of 1929-32. Hence he name, Greater Depression