I learned I don't make money interpreting economic numbers. I learned it's easier to make $$$ letting the market interpret the #'s for me. How many positive economic statistics did we have come out in the last two weeks? Zero. How did the market react? It went up in a straight line, squeezing everybody in the process. No matter what the PPI will be the market will interpret it the way it wants to. Now look at the recent streak of data and reaction... and decide for yourself!
dollar down, oil skyrocketing, rimm off 8%+ and the market trades up....hmmmm oil up 2, im sure will see that translate to another 5 cents+ at the pump. Just paid $3.09, should fill up tonight before it gets to $3.19
i bet it was yesterday strong rebound after the collapse due to minutes. infact i was already getting into the session with a long bias. could be wrong tho...
Here in California, we've been at $3.25 for regular for about a full month now. And even with Chevron's Richmond Refinery now back on line processing 225,000 barrels per day, it really doesn't seem to matter.
I tend to agree with makloda here. Markets do not follow news, (I think they follow opposite of net retail client order flow, personally). Just look at last PPI interpretation -- a huge jump over expectations in inflation -- how did markets react?
I still say with the dollar near an all time low, oil and metals and basically all commodities rising and rising its time for some fed action, not just talk. PPI may be in line with the estimates, CPI will be the surprise. Bernake is just a friggin pussy. Scared to upset his wall street the stock market. Everyone thinks they are doing great but with a falling dollar and a rising market we are really just treading water Show me a strong dollar and a strong stock market, now your talking, just like 1995-2000, that my friend was the real deal.
I would advise buying a selloff, I would not want to have an open position in the US index futures going into this number, good luck!
i'm bullish here too... but... you're warping the argument for your convenience. the jobs report could be construed as fundamentally bullish (even though its not bullish for fed rate cuts); and today's same store sales and chain store sales were awesome. Furthermore, GDP and CPI were both good right before the fed came out as well. Home sales data is a mixed bag as well; not all negative. Bears have been grasping at straws. eminis are at record short levels while the full size (commercial) are net long. that says something. all the little guys are betting on gloom, while big players know money needs to go somewhere.