bump up consumer sentiment as jobs are outsurced & lost due to high AUD http://www.smh.com.au/business/workers-create-wealth-even-in-the-public-sector-20120302-1u7zw.html article suggests jobs will increase in hospitality & art. nearly 50% people live in Melbourne and Sydney. Wonder what service is provided to other 50% which is the fundametal purpose of cities. Large part of population lives like renovators or artists topped up with propery mortgage & some kind of government handout. This segment will increase dramatically over years. Many millions basically unemployed on governmet wellfare. If you have property, 4% a year then will do just fine or so the hope goes. Can imagine articles down the road like Australia needs urgently 300K artists (per year!) so we get again property shortage and rent increases However prices are up there. Consider this Mish article (on my regaular list of read) comparing 860K Vancouver (or Syd or Melb) vs 55 room castle in ireland http://www.smh.com.au/business/workers-create-wealth-even-in-the-public-sector-20120302-1u7zw.html I do not think this will work - 4% pa over years to keep property family happy based on current prices. Something will have to give. Or AUD or property deflation or both. At this point looks like AUD refuses to go down. So, i think this structure will continue for time beeing. No time for action yet.
thats real bad http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-03/11/content_14806932.htm graphical http://www.forexfactory.com/calenda...&do=displayweek&month=3&year=2012#chart=39695 not keen to fade this one... bring out shorting tollbox to have it ready. it is possible that 08 recession starting second leg. there is no way to employ money productively. evidence - banks do not lend.
i think capitalist system will go thru turmoil. More than just another crash. the reason for this is - investments. One looks at how stimulus money is spent and is more or less given away for no benefit at all. Some very stupid, easily seen in advance reason, which delivers no benefite to anyone except person that gets cash. The only difference from giving cash straight to the person is that the image. Receipient and observes get a feel that there is a benefit. Longer term is no benefit so we can approximate todays economy with givng away cash to group of people selected with whatever criteria for no return. And obviously the other group - nonreceipients. Thinking long time about this and... effect of this is to punish cash owners as every extra dollar given away cuts savers dollar. And for no benefit. I assume that if there was meaninful investment available, cash would be directed there. It is possible that this goes on to attempt to save current system. However, problem is that there is no viable investment and that is why economy cannot pick up. there is a possibility that cash will lose its value as people see futility of cash handouts. If so, this will cause large issues. For example people will refuse cash as payment. Imagine army asking to be paid in gold and this is where turmoil starts.
vine is good. so here is my theory stretched. if there is no benefit to noone in what one is doing, as it is case in current climate in many cases driven by stimulus than.... person produces nothing worthvile. So person gets cash, it is tricked into believing work he/she does is important (but it is not) then.... this person can be replicated by a computer buying stuff online, and throwing acquired things in garbage bin and destroying them. No reycling. Hmmmm.... same benefit to economy really. so, one can replicate current world with population of 20b with creating 13m online accounts, possibly 13b facebook accounts etc.. consumption up, profits up, shares up. Dow 55k. facebook 7TR, why not !?!?!? where/if this funny construct breaks? huhuuhu. scary stuff. well, lets step extra. remove 6.5b people and replicate with online accounts 19.5b people. same effect. i dont have answer on this yet. but, my friends, end game is close for cash we worry about. however, there is always option to unleash something like great depression to save monetary system. which is what i am lookng for. but not just yet
last post on et under this name, at least. Someone else has investmet related webpage macroman. Have never read it until realised link. so let him have the name as well i am slightly ahead this year but not able to increase size from profits yet. First CL trade, escaped decent loss with time stop. Unfortunately, profits in trading are not steady. gtg