Grains To The Moon

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by myminitrading, Sep 27, 2007.

  1. why wait till it drops below 700??
     
    #21     Nov 7, 2007
  2. Fundamentals?

    We have less wheat produced this year than last and demand has risen worldwide, so please explain to me how the Fundamentals are pointing lower.

    Technicals?

    We are consolidating, after beginning to confirm, "The" matching top of this contract. The trading range is between 694.50 & 658.75, we are currently at 691.25 and are respectfully; 3.25, 4.25 & 4.75 cents from making new highs again based on the last sequential oscillation tops.

    Considering how these markets move each day we should either see new highs again in this contract really soon or at least see 658.75 broken through before there will be a conservative shorting opportunity there. Why fight a new high, let it confirm the top first then short the crap out of it. Until then, buy those failed bottoms. Never sell new highs and never buy new lows.
     
    #22     Nov 7, 2007
  3. Do you want to guess what tomorrow's headlines will be? Cold, dry weather in the Wheat Belt states.......no snow......global warming.......El Nino.......La Nina........panic buying on the part of commercials and spex until the end of January.....then the dreaded "February Break". The congestion range in the July-08 found support at the highs of early September. If you believe it's a bull-flag, you have to be expecting an upside breakout. We'll see.
     
    #23     Nov 8, 2007

  4. Not trying to be an ass but I just hate it when people don't have there facts right and really don't have a clue about a perticular market.

    You are wrong on your first point. July is a new crop month. That means if we are trading july wheat we are trading the wheat that is currently growing in the ground right now (and yes there is a lot of it), not the stuff that countries are buying and is stored in the bin. July period is the time that farmers are harvesting the wheat and july is typically a really weak contract month in wheat do to the fact of increased farmer selling and harvest pressure. Farmers are seeing even now about double the price of wheat that they have historically seen. The best part is they don't have to store it (major cost in physical commodities)! They can litterally take it right out of the combine and sell it. Now being on a farm in Iowa myself I can say that this is the way most farmers thinks. If they are getting nice prices around harvest time they are going to sell it. Also the odds of us having a black swan event that results in terrible yeilds for 3 straight years is out of the question. The demand has not really been anything special its just that since old crop stocks are so low any type of demand takes wheat off the world market and moves prices higher but with normal stocks it wouldn't nearly as much.

    Im usually not much of a technical trader but we are deffinantly consolidating in a range on july. With the fundamentals I spoke of earlier and the seasonal weakness of the july contract I just am selling near the top of the range and think I can honestly pick up about a buck on the trade.

    So please do some actual research about the market if you are not completely sure and all you know is what your buddies have told you about the wheat market. Just looking at a chart doesn't count. I have been right on the old crop wheat and im looking to be even more right on the new crop wheat.
     
    #24     Nov 8, 2007
  5. any know of a good resonably priced tracking service out there ?
    kind of like briefing.com is to stocks and bonds ? for the ag commodities . thanks
     
    #25     Nov 8, 2007
  6. I fully understand that July is in the ground right now. I own lots of farm land. I do actual research and have been for over 12 years. I teach hedging at a state university as well.

    I don’t store a single grain of what comes out of the fields. I read the markets for my “best price” and then pull further profits out of the markets speculating. I accumulate profits based on a combination of field and trading account profits. My current profit on July eWheat is $2.45 a bushel based on what is in the ground and that is from 7 months of trading and 7 trades. I’m averaging $.35 profit per trade. At this rate I’ll have $5.00 a bushel built in before harvest.

    I was out in Des Moines for the World Pork Expo this summer and had a run in with the USDA rep and the Mexican consulate. I was one of the speakers and was asked a question in regards to soybean prices. I told the group that, in my opinion, we would see $10 beans going into November and $10.60 beans by May 08. The USDA rep stood up in from of everyone and called me everything but human. Beans were trading, at the time, in the mid $8 range. He screamed at me that it was people like me that are destroying the agriculture industry. November 07 beans hit $10.36, Jan 08 is currently on a $10.54 high and May 08 hit $10.70. I’m glad I got his name and email address because his public apology on USDA letterhead was sweet.

    I’m a rare bird that is a technically trained farmer. All of the old school stuff is wonderful but reading price direction is a tool that is priceless in today’s markets.

    Different people can “be right” and get there on different paths. That is the wonderful thing about these markets.
     
    #26     Nov 8, 2007
  7. It must be nice to be a trader as well as a farmer - very complementary. Why do you think wheat has dropped so much with all the scare and hype? I have my theories but would like to hear the opinion of an insider.

    I feel that beans are nearing a top, also. They may blow off higher, but it will be followed by a sudden drop. JMHO.

    Follow rough rice? It's hitting historic highs.

    Maybe corn will surge back to mid 4's. I'm sure some ethanolites are dreaming of 5's+ but I don't see that happening.

    Peace.

     
    #27     Nov 8, 2007
  8. wow - this is good stuff. do either of you have websites???
     
    #28     Nov 8, 2007
  9. Farmers are still subject to the same fear and greed that the rest of us are subject to. They tend to always be bullish. Why would anyone who puts a crop in the ground be bearish?
     
    #29     Nov 9, 2007
  10. I own the land and rent it. I no longer farm it. I wised up.
     
    #30     Nov 9, 2007