Grains To The Moon

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by myminitrading, Sep 27, 2007.

  1. mcurto

    mcurto

    Full carry on Mar/May wheat should be about 13.5 cents (carry) for first notice day and around 17 if held to expiration. A bunch of locals that got hurt on May/July (trying to capture almost $1.00 before the blowup) put the Mar/May back on around +10 cents (inverse) right after the spreads began to calm down. The wheat that has been in Toledo could probably remain there for another decade, the stuff lasts forever, but have heard that the quality is a bit low and there are some vomitoxin issues. When Dreyfus loaded out Hutchinson, KS (KCBT wheat) against I think July or Sep this year the spreads exploded and have been trading mostly in an inverse since. Problem is major customers/world buyers aren't buying SRW anymore, we are mostly selling HRW and HRS, along with SWW to the them. So in reality those rumors about the Toledo load-out probably won't end up being true and the SRW wheat spreads will go back to trading in a calm carry environment when supplies are back to normal. Be super careful with K/N (a Goldman roll spread), last of old crop against new crop with the tightest carryover in 30+ years. It can trade from $2.00 to carry back to $5.00, who really knows the price if we don't get a solid Argentinian or Russian export program between now and May.
     
    #101     Dec 29, 2007