Im not saying there is direct manipulation - but what is really curious is a few days before a bullish report grains sell-off hard and guess who does the buying at lows in enough volume to reverse market a day or just a few hours before report? If its bearish report you get a rally. Who sells in enough volume at highs reversing direction? And why does CME continue closing Ags during important reports? Whats the logic there? All other futures markets are open during important reports so why not Ags?
In the Softs market, cotton and coffee went through the roof today. Cocoa also did quite well, briefly registering a new yearly high in the morning before retracing. Even sugar climbed back above the trendline it broke two days ago, although it lost most of that euphooric momentum towards the end of the session. They all seem well past their shelf-life and yet defy gravity. How much further cotton and coffee will climb I know not, but I feel the top is very close at hand. Nevertheless, I certainly wouldn't short them outright at this point. In the grains front, wheat and beans got roughed up pretty good. Corn, which has been my personal favorite, managed to escape much harm. I s'pose this is due to the rising price of sugar, which is also sold to the ethanol producers. I feel more selling will materialize in the coming days for both wheat and beans. Of course, I speak purely as a techie. If you happen to be a fundie, please chime in should you have anything important to share.
hello @ the OP nice charts, Ameritrade ? what program is this, and do they nowoffer futures ? Where do you find info on USDA news and other market moving events ? And which are the key events moving the grains ? Personally as a chart reader like most everyone here, I find that a very good knowledge of the fundamentals is not necessarily beneficial on balance. Often times, you are better off not knowing anything.
The chart is Thinkorswim, which was gobbled up by Ameritrade last year. While TOS offers futures, Ameritrade does not (although this might have changed but I'm not sure). Anyway, I'm also 100% TA-based trader. But I came to realize that, unlike index futures, there are so many mitigating factors that can tip the balance for commodities I felt that it's worth at least keeping an eye on fundamentals. I'm still not certain which commodity data carry more weight, but you can find the USDA reports from their site: http://tinyurl.com/2aqxygk However, I share in you opinion that the fundamentals are not very helpful. I'm still of the opinion that everything is and will be reflected in price. One corroborating evidence of this is that, as some posters already alluded to, not all bullish news are translated as bullish by the market or vice versa for bearish news. Having actively traded CL for the past 2 years, this belief has only been reinforced. I believe the fundamentals, especially the numbers behind them, are cooked at will by those in power, be they government or the corporate powerhouse. This is the reason why when the market adversely reacts to a bullish report, there's no lack of some idiotic excuse: it's the weather...it's inflation...no, no, it's the China factor!
Some helluva drop in ZW this morning, only to give it all back and then some. What's up with that? Was there a news or is this a frenzied buy-the-dip mentality? Speaking of news, what would be considered a "breaking news"? Weather? Political unrest (eg. regime change, food riot, etc)?
Egypt - its the world's biggest wheat importer by far - if you use fundamentals you gotta figure out how Mubarak will influence prices or if you are a techie the trend is up. Enjoy
I hesitated to sell near the low since I saw ZS was really weak. I figured or hoped ZW would follow suit but that never materialized. And what the hell is up with ZC? It seems to have broke ties with other grains. Aren't they supposed to move in parallel similar to the index futures?
If you use fundamentals you gotta figure out how prices will be impacted by the USDA reduced estimates of the 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for corn from 745 to 675 million bushels - a bigger cut than expected and how Africans whose staple diet is maize-meal (milled corn) will also impact on prices and how weather conditions in AUS/RUSSIA/CHINA etc will impact prices. If you are a techie no research the trend is up so buy truckloads. Enjoy