Grain Trades: Estimate USDA Crop Report Jan 12th, 2011

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by emg, Jan 3, 2011.

  1. emg


    Anybody has the estimate numbers for the USDA Crop report Jan 2011?

    So far, i heard that some analysts projecting sharply lower soy carryout than current USDA estimates suggest; 2011 acreage allocation clearly impossible.
  2. emg


    remember grain traders, last yr jan crop report, beans and corn went limit down:

    corn went from 4.25 - 3.50
    beans went from 10.50 - 8.90.

    I am expecting a huge surprise from that report.
  3. local


    Also hearing of private estimates of very tight bean carryout. This being countered by ideas that Chinese demand is front loaded, however I don't believe it. July/Nov peaked last week at about $1.18,think it was due to expected shift from SA to US. Think it should find some support under $1.00. However, record long fund positions bother me, I don't think they will roll into new crop at these levels, but ....

  4. quantitative doesn't matter about supply or demand....speculators are pushing prices higher for everything that has value including cotton, anything that has value banks are buying and causing inflation....

    oil,stocks,cotton. everything is being bought with quantitative easing and tonnes of cash in the system earning 0% interest.

    FED wants inflation ..they'll get it.and interest rates will skyrocket to 10% and the fed won't have descretion on rates anymore.. US dollar will continue to plummet to drop another 25% versus the euro,yen,cad,,,,and the yuan appreciate 50% imports from china double...disposable income drop further and employees and senior demand more money in wages and pensions. pensions cost increase gov't budget increase but tax base same...further increaseing's vicious cycle. to the pits of hell.

  5. emg


    u look for it at the usda site. the reports are released before the grain market opens. I would also focus on the openning call before the grain market opens.

    all usda reports have a tremendous impact on agri price. But the key thing is weather!
  6. emg


    i totally agree with u
  7. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    It is almost impossible to know exactly someone,

    how Weather will go.

    Also, it is extremely difficult someone to have Rare Weather Informations in an affordable cost for Individual Persons especially.

    I believe even extremely Big Multinational Grains Companies have troubles to receive accurate Weather Data.

    Another important difficult Factor is, the Crop Diseases.

    Another important Factor too is,

    a prediction in an Event/s similar of the 8th Plague of Egupt,

    which i include the prediction in an Attack/s from Insects and from Mormon Crickets,

    that can affect Crops.

    Now, i have find in the yesterday Minneapolis Grains Exchange Daily Market Commentary Report,

    some Numbers.

    What expect the Market.

    You can reach these Numbers from here: .

    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  8. local


    Game has officially started, Dec 11/Dec12 corn traded to 45, new high. For past couple of weeks the spread has been more a function of the outright trade in the Dec 12 corn (indiscriminate orders of 200 in Dec 12 corn occasionally put the spread to something less then 35, last friday large volumes at 30 cents ). Less support for Dec 12 and the spread is out to 45 today. Dec 11 has to "buy" acres.

    Regards, local