TraderTX Friday's numbers will indeed be interesting from a spread point of view. Curious to see how problems in old-crop stox numbers in beans are resolved. Q-X inverse/backwardation has weakened, but continues to indicate tighter stox than implied in June 30 report. X-F neutral at about 50% of full commercial carry as questions over beginning stox lingers.
Yeah still trying to figure this one out and why 100000 are trading in the front spread now after the NU was basically locked for a while. Only thing I can guess it that people don't think the current crop will be harvested by sept delievery.... total guess. Anyone else.
Right long term bearish stuff should take spreads out to full carry. I heard traders don't believe that the crop will be ok... of course no one believes that silly usda corn number but yields/acr could be all time highs even if all those acres materialize, (which they won't). I think final production will still be there. Looking for curve to steepen. Seems like a lot of people don't agree... who knows maybe the crop will suck. I know people are frost scared as well and think last year was total luck to not get an early frost.
It was due to short term cash tightness. Flat price dropped, farmers stopped selling while end users saw it as a chance to cover their needs. So caught a lot of guys (including myself) bearspread in the u/z and short hedgers were caught in july. Crop is picture perfect, ending stocks are plentiful, plenty of acres in the new crop. in my opinion that n/u squeeze was a one time event. Theres too many smart guys on the cash side of the business that would take major advantage of the situation if u/z did the same thing as n/u.
I've been looking at the various bean calendar spreads mostly. But I trade across various markets and don't always understand ag that well (yet more to learn). Anything catching your eye as far as action? Think Q/X can go south of 70 in the beans?