Grain Market Poll

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by PohPoh, Oct 9, 2008.

  1. Shaqi

    Shaqi

    mmmm - thats interesting stuff TraderX
     
    #21     Oct 20, 2008
  2. Shaqi

    Shaqi

    Traderx - Its now 40 any doubts it goes lower? Im not in though.

     
    #22     Nov 11, 2008
  3. Shaqi: I'm now watching the March contract. Just hit 42.50, and I'm showing some long term support at 40-42.5, so I may try a small long position, but likely just a quarter size position, as it doesn't look like the equity markets will help it out any, and even if it hits support, it may just flounder around at support.
     
    #23     Nov 11, 2008
  4. Shaqi

    Shaqi

    If you can make sense out of this - good for you.

    Bearish traders are running rampant in the Cotton futures market, as strength in the U.S. Dollar and weak demand expectations have sent prices to 6 year lows. Yesterday morning, the USDA released its November Crop Production and Supply/Demand report and, as expected, lowered its forecast for world consumption to 119.33 million bales, down nearly 3 million bales due to slowdowns in mill activity. However, not all the news in the USDA report was bearish, as 2008-09 U.S. Cotton production was estimated at 13.53 million bales, which was below average analysts estimates.

    Despite projections for lower world Cotton usage, the USDA kept U.S. Cotton exports unchanged at 13 million bales, as low prices are making U.S. Cotton competitive for foreign buyers. The real wildcard to the direction of Cotton prices may be the recently announced Chinese stimulus package. If China is successful in stimulating domestic growth, the country's seemingly insatiable appetite for commodities might be renewed, and Cotton demand could increase sharply. China is the leading importer of U.S. Cotton, and any signs of increased buying-out of China could spur a bout of short-covering buying. Long only Index funds have been cutting back on all commodity positions of late and, should Chinese demand for commodities start to increase, demand for commodity funds should be rejuvenated and cause renewed buying of commodities -- Cotton included.
     
    #24     Nov 11, 2008