price will show you levels, where it has hard time staying.. till than don't arbitrarily short levels.
FOMC and key economic reports have always been gamed, irrespective of what the report is, the FED through proxies takes the market where it wants to. This entrains the minds of market participants to expect price action to behave in a way where, 'fear/greed' trade takes hold intraday. Parabolic/trending curves are expected by market participants.
IF, and it's a big IF, I decide to buy some puts, I guarantee it will be ES futs options...I do wish SPY options were 24 hours, nonetheless, this market has too much overnight range to get complacent with the notion that gap risk isn't an enormous risk...The past few days I'm still getting that odd deja-vu from last October...Even with i960 (a great market reader) on the thread and his prescient call last September of a major rally in the works...I remember he was targeting 1980 (which seemed a mile away at the time) and the thing never stopped rallying until the 2100's...The past two days have been near identical in the squeeze like, no volatility, complete control of the market in a manner that is so at odds with the past two months...Literally, a switch is turned off and all volatility dies and this market compresses with no retracements...I refer to this often as to why a position short CAN become like a noose around one's neck...Just get stuck with some bleeding puts one time and you really will never forget how painful it is...
Oh look... Nikkei up sharply after lunch.... http://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanri...y-intervening-in-oilcommodities/#3b28aafc6056
Who said anything about arbitrary? The post was partially tongue in cheek. What I really meant is ill look to see how things go between 2000-2020-2040 but I'm not ready to short the pig quite yet.