S&P500 finished over 5% down this month, sitting just below 20MA, technically this correction isn't over, I think until December markets will be correcting.
LOL, you got alot of nerve to keep up the bullish facade when you disappeared for a week after the "Never gaps down" sandp gapped down 150 points on monday. Im more than willing to admit i took a bath on sunday night long from 1970 dumped at 1954 in the sunday night market, but i stayed alive, how many times over would that gap down to 1820 have obliterated your account had you followed the mantra you are preaching on here?
Ive never been a big fed conspiracy theorist, I.E. i have never thought that they were actually juicing the markets on top of all the Q.E. nonsense, but all I can say as a frustrated short is that the market should have broken down both yesterday and today, its a goddamn miracle from god (if not intervention) that the markets didnt roll over today or yesterday, yesterday i watched a short ES position go from 40 points up (where luckily i took half off) to a loser on the second half. Then today we mysteriously stabilize so it doesnt melt down going into the weekend. That recovery yesterday afternoon is something I have never seen in the market, and ive been a fulltime trader since 2004, watching the markets since 1998. Im not necessarily pointing fingers, but i cant fathom how we bounced off that low yesterday.
Yeah, I could sense the difference on Wednesday to be honest...I had a line drawn right at 1877 and was trying to fill on a call spread down there (of course that's exactly when Dudley made his comments)...Once it took off, it still had that sort of spike up (to be sold) action that we saw all day long Monday and Tuesday...except this time someone large was on the bid and it felt "different"...and since then it's had that same feel (same thing today on sharp breaks)... It's public record that CB's hold stocks...I don't know in what universe that would be advisable, but apparently since 2009, it's acceptable...the fact that CB's have become quasi-hf's, combined with the very obvious "good cop/bad cop" routine with Fed members making policy comments in the middle of the day, should make one question what's really going on.
Did you see what happened in some of the ETF's on monday when the market makers disappeared? There were BOND etf'S trading down 40%, it was free money and they didnt break any of the trades thankfully, but it just goes to show that these bots are not designed to make a market, they are designed to PILE ON, meaning if something goes down they are adding to the problem. There is a list of ETF's from monday that all traded down more than 40% on the open and all these were unleveraged products that are designed to track the sector via the underlying. There was nothing in these ETF's portfolio that was even down 40% at that point. I really wish that i wasnt confident that the trades were going to break cause i made a fucking killing, but i didnt load up cause i just thought that the market was smarter than me.
There is...not just VIX, but VXN and RVX as well...I was just looking at other time periods and so far it looks similar to late summer into fall of 2011...the Oct 2014 break (which is what this recovery this week is bringing back into memory) the vol's imploded quite rapidly...not to mention the price structure was contained in various channels/trendlines, etc (granted it might not mean a whole lot)...this rally back to resistance still seems to have alot of risk premium in those far otm puts...granted the whole theory about announcing QE4 and trapping the bears is sitting in the back of my mind.
I didn't see the ETF's, I was trying to figure out what to do with my existing positions (mostly options), but I was a bit freaked because of how the quotes were literally all over the place and the marks on the positions were moving everywhere... The "piling on" is exactly how I see it..which is why when I watch these markets, I can't help but remember the old days when I could figure out where humans would probably let up, sell into, buy into, all that old stuff that is becoming irrelevant..Nowadays, the markets (and the bots) just relentlessly buy and sell in one direction, creating "v's" everywhere (with minimal liquidity)...