HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Amazing how this drop just started and the s$p just fell below its support line and this is the headline you read after one of the biggest down days this year, Damn they will do what ever it takes to get buyers into this market.... only minutes after the close this is the HEADLINE ON cnbc!!!!! TOP NEWS & ANALYSIS S&P 500 slump could be biggest bull signal of all The S&P 500 is basically flat this year and in the past year up 3 percent. History says that means it's almost time to buy. The S&P 500 has turned in pretty dull performance so far in 2015. It went negative on the year Thursday—but is basically flat—and in the past one-year period, is up about 3 percent. The S&P's mediocre performance raises a question. If the market stays on its current up-and-down course and the U.S. stock market finishes 2015 hemming and hawing, what does S&P 500 historical data suggest: time to buy or more proof it's time to head for the exits? The long-term data does provide an answer. A feeble return has been a bull indicator. Getty Images Going back to 1918, there are 11 instances of calendar years in which the S&P 500 was up or down by 3 percent or less, according to S&P Capital IQ. In the subsequent calendar year, the market rose an average 13.3 percent and gained in price 82 percent of the time (nine of 11 instances), according to data from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research Services. Narrowing the screen to +/-2 percent, the average subsequent return for the S&P 500 rises to roughly 15.3 percent and the frequency of advance goes up to 89 percent (eight of nine instances). The 'dull' but enlightening history of S&P 500's weak years Year Price 1-year change in index *S&P 500 return following a "flat" year 1956 46.67 2.6 -14.31 1947 15.30 0.0 -0.65 1948 15.20 -0.7 10.26 1970 92.15 0.1 10.8 1978 96.11 1.1 12.31 1987 247.08 2.0 12.4 2011 1257.60 0.0 13.4 1923 8.82 -1.5 18.71 1960 58.11 -3.0 23.13 1984 167.24 1.4 26.33 1994 459.27 -1.5 34.11 Average: 13.32 (*Note: Sorted by S&P 500 annual return following a "flat" year.) Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said the big caveat to looking at the long-term data in a vacuum is the growing and obvious concern over "COF"—China, oil and the Fed. But he expressed slightly brighter-than-cautious optimism. "It's not a fun market right now, but the past 23 years has been, and if this is the 'payback' for that—which at this point is a break-even year—sign me up again," said Silverblatt. There is at least one interesting point of comparison between the current year and past years of weak S&P 500 performance, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex. Both 1984 and 1994 were the start of Federal Reserve rate cycles—1984 was easing and 1994 tightening. (1956 was also the beginning of a Fed rate cycle, though to a less significant degree.) Read MoreFed rate hike speculation is getting nuts Colas said in 1994 when he was analyzing autos, the stocks were moving from major leaders to market laggards as the first rate rise loomed. Even though it was somewhat expected, it caught the market by surprise, but the year still ended flat. "Now it's analogous. The Fed has told us what they would like to do, we just don't know when and the cadence is in question," Colas said. "That creates uncertainty and a flat market, and once uncertainty is past, you get better returns the following year." He added that the Fed move is not likely to be as severe as it was in 1994. That year the hike in the fed funds rate was big, starting at 3.05 percent and ending the year at 5.45 percent. "The speed of that move caught the markets by surprise, and this time the Fed has promised to not be as metronomic as during the Greenspan era," Colas said. Still, Fed uncertainty is a big caveat to set against the data. The market doesn't know the answer yet, and there is no guarantee that once the Fed moves, investors will move on, or more uncertainty follow. "It's not a fun market right now, but the past 23 years has been, and if this is the 'pay back' for that—which at this point is a break-even year—sign me up again."-Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices Colas said whenever investors look to annual analysis of returns they have to keep in mind that the calendar year is "an artifice of mankind." Additionally, a lot can happen between now and the end of the year which changes the current flat year for the S&P 500 to a significant level. However, Colas said with the S&P 500 at just above 3 percent for the past year, "right against the 3 percent level," if you make the assumption the data work in a rolling 12-month cycle, it's in the least worth considering buying the S&P 500 for a one-year holding period. There may be too many variables to put a fat finger on the S&P 500 buy button as a result of one statistical anomaly, but in the least, if the fourth quarter rolls around and the S&P 500 is still in flat territory, the long-term index data are worth weighing. Stovall summed up the long-term historical S&P 500 data in terms of tried and true market proverbs. "I guess you could say that the adage 'never short a dull market' applies to dull years as well," he said. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/sp-500-is-having-a-dull-year-and-thats-good-for-investors.html
WOW nasdaq closes below its 200 DMA for the first time since OCTOBER 17th, The S&P and the Dow just had worst day of the year Reem Nasr | @reemanasr 32 Mins Ago It was a tough day on Wall Street. In fact, for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average, Thursday marked the worst day of 2015. (Tweet this) The S&P finished down 2.1 percent while the Dow closed down 2.06 percent. Bother indexes had their worst day since Feb. 3, 2014. On that day the S&P was down 2.28 percent and the Dow finished down at 2.06 percent. The slide came a day after the Federal Reserve released the minutesfrom its July meeting. Most analysts interpreted the minutes as less indicative of a September rate hike. Wall Street had previously anticipated that the Fed might have more reason to move next month. Read MoreS&P erases gains for year as stocks plunge 2% on Fed, growth concerns Here are some other milestones hit in this trading session: The S&P is now negative for the year Consumer discretionary sector had its worst day since June 1, 2012 All sectors finished the day negative, and only utilities were positive for the week The S&P once again traded below its 200-day moving average level of 2,078.2 on an intraday basis (today is the first time the S&P closed below its 200-day since July 9) The Nasdaq is trading below its 50-day level of 5,075.21 and closed below its 200-day for the first time since Oct. 17 Cumulative volume on Thursday was 7.9 billion shares, the most volume since Aug. 12, when 8.28 billion shares were traded —CNBC's Gina Francolla and Christopher Hayes contributed to this report. Reem Nasr
AS I keep saying the dow is headed to OCTOBER 2014 lows Just below 16,000, after that I have no clue where the markets go, probably end up going down even further, 15,000....14,000 then before you know it it will be a full blown bear market. Oct 16, 2014 16,137.14 16,211.12 15,935.22 16,117.24 131,670,000 16,117.24 Oct 15, 2014 16,313.30 16,313.30 15,855.12 16,141.74 160,380,000 16,141.74
This is a controlled sell off, no panic, no limit down. I am certain that at this stage funds will be eye balling the rising averages below most indexes to start adding to portfolios.
Cramer said the fed has to come out and say NO RATE HIKES AT ALL FOR 2015, that's what I have been saying the entire time, that the Fed will come out saying no rate hikes for 2015, to give wallstreet some much needed help, I can almost guarantee that they will do that if the markets continue lower....as you know the fed will do anything to prop up stock markets just like they have throughout the last 6 years and counting. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/cramer-remix-the-fed-needs-to-do-this-now.html At this point, it is clear to Jim Cramer that the stock market is inevitably going down. That's just the way it is. But that doesn't mean investors have to sit back and do nothing about it. "I do find it helpful to figure out what would reverse that ineluctable sense of retreat so if I spotted it…I would know that the overwhelming propensity for a declining session isn't as written in stone as we thought," the "Mad Money" host said. So, what are the topics on Cramer's radar that could signal a market reversal if they changed? He went down the list. First, the Fed needs to declare 2015 a rate-hike free zone. They need to do it now, Cramer says, because it has to recognize the strong-dollar perils that America and its trading partners would face if a rate hike happened soon. Second, the Chinese market needs to reset. Cramer wants to see a Chinese version of the Nasdaq 2000 crash play out, as the Shanghai Composite index is filled with stocks that are ridiculously overvalued. By his calculations, it has to lose 35 to 40 percent of its value. Until that happens, Cramer wants investors to be aware that there are plenty of U.S. companies with stocks that are vulnerable to China's decline. Third, commodities have to bottom, which seems to have no real floor in sight due to opaque demand. But more importantly, the miners have not stopped pumping more of what the world does not need. Glencore, BHP, Vale all have to blink and none of them have. Thus, there is no bottom in sight. Oil is not done going down until the Saudis say so.
Markets dragged down by global meltdown fears Another picture on cnbc after the huge sell off on wallstreet....biggest drop in a year and a half...that has some investors uneasy tonight while they eat dinner and wait anxiously for the opening bell tomorrow.
I find it funny that the market is basically where it was from the start of the year. I feel no shame whatsoever in having liquidated a large amount of long-term holdings back in February. Remember too - the composition of this market (dumb money wise) is probably significantly dumber than 2005-2007. There's no way they (TPTB) will let this crater because the rush for the exits would be swift. So expect all manner of games to be played if weakness increases.
There isn't much fear after today's performance, the actual bear flashes its ass below 20ma on monthly.