Chinese markets and Greece are now very relevant to US markets and rates......if china continues to sell off and their GDP starts to slip below 7% and markets around the world start to follow suit selling off more than 10-20% the fed will not raise rates....The markets expect a rate hike in 2015, but every single time that prediction of when they will raise comes around its always pushed back, now most have september as the time they raise rates, but everyone knows they are going to wait until December, they wouldn't want to spook the markets with China down 30% and earnings slowing down....soooooo if there is a rate hike they will do it in December, only .25% but Im betting 99.9% chance they don't move until next year. When the markets continue to fall the fed will quickly announce that they will hold off on any rate hikes, this will make wall street happy, but happy for only a small amount of time....
finally vix is moving, could easily make some multi month highs if this sell off continues into the week ahead but it wont since the fed is going to save it once again...
oil still falling yet prices at pump remain the same as they were from 2-3 weeks ago, paid $2.90 and thats with a 10 cents off per gallon, so its still $nearly $3.00, I guess oil has to drop to $15 a barrel in order to get $2.00 gas, maybe oil drops to $5-$10 a barrel, then will get $1.00 gas, but until then they are going to keep oil at the pump inflated for as long as they can even though the barrel keeps dropping.....see what they did in California, gas prices there make it look like the barrel of oil is above $90+ fucking joke....and the best part is all these fools thought that when oil was dropping that the consumers would have even more money to spend on more useless worthless goods, hahahah....yea cause saving an extra $12 a week filling up a 20 gallon suv is really going to make a difference when the weekend comes and they want that t-shirt for $42.89, yep, they don't understand that the rise in other costs is depleting the consumer, the rise in health care costs and schooling and low wage growth is really hurting the consumer, a drop in oil prices and saving 23 cents a gallon is going to rocket up GDP like these dumb fools believe its "supposed" to do.....this whole economy is distorted thanks again to BUBBLE ben bernanke, the fed and the world of central banks, thanks again for pumping the world with useless dollars and trillions of debt.....
ohhh fuck dennis gartman just "CHANGED HIS MIND" on US stocks.... This literally means get long anything and everything....he now says its difficult to put together a bullish case for stock prices YETTTTTTT 2-3 weeks ago he was bullish on stocks..... Dow is sitting around 17450 when this was written s$$$p is sitting around 2070 Nasdaq is sitting around 5045 Why Dennis Gartman changed his mind on US stocks Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere 27 Mins Ago Investors in U.S. stocks should be at best "neutral" and at worst "slightly bearish," closely followed market watcher Dennis Gartman said Monday. "It is very difficult to put together a bullish case for stock prices," said Gartman—citing problems in China and Europe, falling bond yields and commodities prices trending lower. He generally looks at the market on a short-term basis. "I think the best thing to do is to quietly go to the sidelines and allow the circumstances in Europe and ... China wend their way through and clarify themselves," the founder and publisher of The Gartman Letter told CNBC's "Squawk Box" in an interview. "We're probably not closer to a bottom. I think we're closer to the top." U.S. stocks opened lower Monday—coming off the worst weekly drop for the Dow Jones industrial average since January and the biggest weekly declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since March. "Two [or] three weeks ago I was quite bullish on stocks," he said. "[But] now I see a lot of reasons to be at best neutral on stocks here in the United States and even slightly bearish of them." Gartman also said he's troubled that advancing stocks versus declining stocks were not making new highs recently along with the market overall. Read MoreWhy US stocks may rebound in second half: Strategists "The overriding fundamental is China," he said, on a day when Chinese stocks dropped nearly 8.5 percent. "I tell you to pay a great good deal of attention to what's going on in China." The Shanghai composite had surged 147 percent in the 12 months leading up to hitting seven-year highs in mid-June. But since then, the market has fallen about 27 percent based on Monday's close. In recent weeks, the Chinese market had been staging a bit of a recovery, after Beijing stepped in with rescue measures. "The government [there] is doing everything it can to try to pop up stock prices, and thus far has been utterly unsuccessful," Gartman contended. "Usually government intervention ends badly, and this does not look pretty." Other market watchers like Tom Lee, the longtime bull at Fundstrat Global Advisors, were undeterred by China—telling "Squawk Box" in a separate interview that U.S. stocks appear poised for a second-half rebound.
hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha I love the title, fuck this is so funny, I love that I can pull up past articles on this guy, why does he even go on cnbc anymore, he must be feeling like a complete idiot now..... You’d be a ‘fool’ to short the market: Gartman Arjun Kharpal | @ArjunKharpal Friday, 17 Jul 2015 | 2:51 AM ET Anyone shorting the global stock market stands to make a "fool" of themselves as equities continue to rally, Dennis Gartman, the founder and editor of the "Gartman Letter," told CNBC on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied to a record high on Thursday, helped by upbeat earnings. The broader S&P 500 stock index meanwhile has been on a broad upward trend since mid-2011 and is up 2.5 percent year-to-date. "It's still a bull market…and if you try to sell it, if you get out of it, especially if you try to go short of it, you make a fool of yourself," Gartman said in a TV interview. Analysts have raised concerns about the hefty valuations of stocks. The S&P 500 is currently trading 16.5 times forward estimates of its companies' earnings, according to recent data from Reuters. Forward estimates are an important metric that many analysts use to gauge the attractiveness of equity indexes. The S&P 500 is about 10 percent more expensive than its historic average of 15, according Reuters estimates. "What I find interesting and relatively amusing is that every smart guy and every smart woman I know…keeps trying to sell it short, and they put forth wonderful ideas about why stocks are overvalued… but the stock market keeps moving higher," Gartman said.
bought more UWTI at $1.57, brought my cost average down to approx $2.25-$2.30 once oil is back above $55 this should be back above $2.75++
it happens, Im long SOXL, DIG, ERX, UWTI and JDST today.... SOXL semi long DIG oil long ERX oil long UWTI oil long JDST gold short looking for s 2-3 day bounce coming, will unload all shares Went long TNA last week and Im down about $7-$8 a share on that, but my TZA long is doing well today, sold off some XIV last Friday and glad I did since its down over $2 today, only own a small amount of that.... going to be an interesting week, fed meeting will bring much volatility this week.
apple nearing its earnings lows from last week around $121-$122 area....not much to move markets higher, steam is coming out of the market but I feel we have some rallies left, if not I'm not worries since I still have most of my short positions on...