Well at least he posts his trades. New highs today, so time for bears to stop out, but perhaps the next breakdown will be finally it.
No agreement on Greece, market surges higher....makes you stop and think. Who is really buying today.
"Likely strong to withstand an interest rate increase" were talking 0.25% increase in the fed funds rate, if the economy can't handle a 0.25% increase in the fed funds rate please tell me how this market is at historical highs??? Also, as you can see this has been the game plan, before they were looking at higher rates in 2016 and 2017, but notice how quick they now have come down, saying "they expect rates to rise slightly less by the end of 2016 and 2017 than they did in their March forecasts." Which says one thing, when the next months roll around and were finally in 2016 all those forecasts that are being talked about now wont even exist in 2016 and 2017. Even the slightest threat of a recession will keep the fed from raising rates and thats why I will still stick with a 0% fed funds rate...and lets say it gets to 2% by 2018, if a recession comes along the fed will take that 2% and knock it straight down to 0% within one emergency meeting.....so thats why I think in 2020 the fed funds rate will still be 0%. The Fed said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was likely strong enough to withstand an interest rate increase later this year but cut its economic growth forecasts for 2015. Even though a majority of Fed officials continue to see higher rates by the end of 2015, they expect rates to rise slightly less by the end of 2016 and 2017 than they did in their March forecasts. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-rise-fed-hints-gradual-113559104.html
I started legging into the SPXS again, missed my big add by 5 ticks though, hopefully ES pushes all the way to the 2125 area, trading the range has been the way to go for the last 4 months, ill take 1 hit when im wrong but until then flipping between the spxs and spxl has been easy money
I have traded SPXL numerous times this year but will NOT touch it at these levels, it only becomes a buy in my opinion under $75 for a quick trade, yes it could become a quick trade in the lower 80's but above $95 its not for me, I wouldn't be caught holding those at market highs, I would wait for the market to come down at least 5% before jumping back into long 3X etfs... As for TNA I traded it over 6 or 7 times so far the last 3 months and have made money every single time, its now trading out of the range I trade it at, sold my shares on Monday at $91 and now trading at new highs at $96+ will NOT buy it until that drops below $86....
I agree that there is alot more risk with the SPXL here, but i play that one with less size, and also ultra tight stops, with the SPXS im not scared at all to be all in it, and short the market, at the highs with a stop 20 points adove the high and a target 20-40 point below it. In my opinion there is nothing that could really cause a big upside surprise here, but lots of things that could cause it to go down. Im betting that traders will be able to make a killing off the ES this summer shorting all the attempts at highs, with a wide stop and then just taking profits as the market pulls back, im trading on the assumption that we just wont have enough volume in this market during the summer months to make this market have a significant breakout.
So did lady dove come out today and say, I just meant 1 rate hike not two. It's such a joke, read my lips....NO RATE CHANGE IN 2015.....They will change the inputs and claim inflation is still low.....You have nothing to worry about they won't raise rates anytime soon. If oil spikes, they will say, it's creating a drag and we must keep rates low to offset that drag....You get the picture.