I'm unclear on how US markets will play out the rest of this year, but my instincts suggest a corrective phase during the summer anticipating some modest interest rate hikes that likely will occur this fall ( just like Canada did in fall 2010 ). I swing trade indexes for my long term investments, did really well from 2009-2013, in 100% cash since late May 2013 and that ended up being too early. Missed 2-3 logical entry points since because I tried to time the bottom of each correction too well. October 2014 I was on the fence ready to buy and missed out by a day. Seasonality that you mentioned is an important aspect of my choices on these funds, in concert with major historical support/resistance points. Note this is my conservative money, capital conservation is more important then swinging for HRs. Over my lifetime, I've noticed that a patient approach to indexes is the best policy, there are always really good entry points at some point, and today's US markets I don't think look attractive all things being considered. But I was wrong in 2013 so I could be wrong in 2015. March 2009 was an obvious buying opportunity in Canada, I knew once the highly profitable Canadian banks were out of favour that market sentiment was way overdone on the sell side.
Ill know more Sunday night. The pattern has been to sell in this area. Im looking for a breakout at some point, to the upside as I stated in a chart.