I looked at a few articles about this with historical performance and the impression I got is that late May is the time to sell.
The market is currently pricing the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate yield at 1 percent for the end of 2016 and 1.5 percent for 2017, Mark Kiesel said. The central bank has kept rates near zero since December 2008 wowowowowow....1% for end of 2016 and 1.5% for 2017 hahaha big moves there don't you think.... by then unemployment should be under 5%, the fed has no clue what they are doing... its actually going to be 0% for 2015, maybe 1/4 by 2016 and by 2017 maybe .50% but really if you think about the fed wont be able to move once the recession comes and stocks are down 30%+ so in reality by 2017 rates should still be at 0%...remember the fed has no way out this time, they have used all their foolish ways to prop up the market that once it corrects and a recession is here they will have nothing to fix it and that will cause even more panic on wall street which will cause the collapse.
Not in the slightest, you need to educate yourself, don't be an emotional fool like S2007S. For starters, try to find out who owns large corporations and what motivates them. Understand mutual fund and ETF flows and who owns them. Understand what QE really is, and that governments have been involved in similar fiscal programs off and on for decades. Understand that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with low interest rates, and any reason to raise them has nothing to do with market performance ( get the cause and effect in the right direction ). Or just remain ignorant and post silly emotional rants like S2007S, pretend that this years market is something extraordinary ( it's not, what percentage have US markets risen this year and how does that rank historically ? ). You claim it's a "manipulated market" ??? Manipulated by who, and what evidence do you have on that ? Seriously now, it's a bull market and until it's over don't claim every one day jump is something extraordinary.
Holding Nikkei short into next week. It almost reached my target of 19k this week, but I made a decision not to take profits as divergence on its daily chart is just too sweet.
I agree with many of your points; however, the U.S. Fed has a dual mandate, so they could postpone a rate hike if they knew markets would correct significantly and companies would layoff employees - the markets perception of this mandate is the entire basis of today's rally. Of course, how much "weight" they give to each mandate is the most important question. These quotes from the Chicago Fed are very troubling to me as it seems to suggest they would tolerate very high inflation (and stock market speculation) to meet the unemployment mandate. "The most reasonable interpretation of our maximum employment objective is an unemployment rate near its natural rate, and a fairly conservative estimate of that natural rate is 6%. So, when unemployment stands at 9%, we’re missing on our employment mandate by 3 full percentage points. That’s just as bad as 5% inflation versus a 2% target. So, if 5% inflation would have our hair on fire, so should 9% unemployment." "The trigger policy I noted above and level-targeting policies may result in inflation running at rates that would make us uncomfortable during normal times. But we should not be afraid of such temporarily higher inflation results today." https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2011/09-07-dual-mandate
Romik, are you still trading Palladium? I feel like going long on fundamentals after it corrects a touch.