Electronics, computers and clothing??? I don't know about you but a new cell phone today cost hundreds more than it did 10 years ago, look at the newest smartphones and go buy one off contract, which seems to be the new thing everyone does these days, how much we talking??? Let me see, $600-$1000 for a fucking cell phone, Go price up a new 4K TV $1200, $2500, $5000 $10,000 $20,000...Everyone knows every one wants the newest technology......Go price up A samsung 25 Cubic foot French door stainless steel refrigerator, thats only $1700....ohhh yes and those Nikes, those are only $100-$200 a pair and probably only cost about $12.89 to make....I went shopping for some food last night, milk was $3.69-$3.99 a half gallon, bread $4.00, And Im not talking Wonder bread, Im talking real bread...average size bag of chips Snyders pretzels 8.25 OZ bag for $3.50 ....I don't see Electronics and computers and clothing substantially cheaper, if you do then show me the way, I would like to get the discounts you get instead of paying FULL retail price....
SO in the last few months s$p earnings have dropped significantly yet markets are only 1% off their highs....there was an original forecast for a huge whopping 4.3% growth at the beginning of 2015, but today they are now expected to turn in negative growth of 5 percent, again the market has shrugged this off completely thanks again to the central banks and yellen with her friends at the fed....as you can see it says U.S companies are under-promising so they can over-deliver this earnings season, this is the new way of announcing earnings so that earnings look better each and every time a company announces....add that to the buy backs and you have a recipe for unlimited gains, this market has no rules, it has no risk, its backed by a dovish fed that will give it anything and everything it wants....this is a market that has never been seen before, you may think its a healthy strong market but in reality its not, I will keep repeating that until the day the market collapses, I don't care what earnings look like, I don't care about continuous historical highs or GDP figures, thats all smoke and mirrors, take away the trillions the central banks have pumped into the world markets and you would soon realize this market is worthless without them, it can't stand on its own...once the real market starts to slowly show its real ways you will wish there was no such thing as the fed or QE or free bailouts. This market will turn so quick you won't have a clue what to do...but for now let everyone enjoy all this free money, I hope some are putting it away for a rainy day....you are definitely going to need it. Belski: Notion of 2015 earnings recession is 'bunk' Tom DiChristopher Thursday, 9 Apr 2015 | 10:27 AM ET U.S. companies are under-promising so they can over-deliver this earnings season, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said on Thursday. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings growth have been revised down significantly since the beginning of the year. Companies in the index are now expected to turn in negative growth of 5 percent, compared with a forecast for 4.3 percent growth at the beginning of the year. "This whole notion of an earnings recession is bunk, as my grandmother used to say," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box." Belski called the practice of issuing earnings forecasts that companies know they can beat a game. Gloomy full-year forecasts are reminiscent of the outlook in 2014, he said, noting that those premonitions did not come to pass. The S&P 500 rose 12.5 percent in 2014. Earnings estimates have not fully priced in the benefit of lower energy costs, Belski said. Oil prices have fallen about 50 percent from their highs in June. "No one's talking about lower input costs the second half of the year," he said. "If you have lower natural gas prices and lower oil prices, that's going to help the manufacturing sector." Earnings growth estimates for consumer staples, one of the sectors expected to reap the benefits of lower prices at the pump, have been revised down from 14 percent to 6 percent. Ashwani Kaul, CEO of Kaul Advisory Group, sees S&P 500 earnings falling 4.6 percent, making his one of the bleakest outlooks. The silver lining is that earnings should actually grow 5 percent excluding energy and materials, both commodity plays, he said. He continued to say the negative growth period should only last one or two quarters. "We expect earnings to pick up in the third and fourth quarter. I think once the whole commodities and currency stuff plays out, and things become more stable, there are some good opportunities in the later half of the year," he told "Squawk Box."
This is the news about once a week now.... The RIG count...... US drillers take 42 rigs out of oilfields, biggest drop in a month on top of that news, this week oil had one of the largest build up in inventories since 2001, guess what happened, oil rallied, hmmmm Seems as if this supply and demand scenario is not working again, you would think with such a build up of oil would send prices lower, a lot lower? you know to new multi year lows under $40 a barrel.... I wonder why its back above $50.... could the central banks be supporting the price of oil above $50 to keep defaults from happening in the oil and energy sector ....there are billions and billions and billions worth of loans taken out over the last decade especially with oil above $100, you know how these companies play on wall street, they love to over leverage themselves and take on risk, especially when oil was only going up, up, up, now its down, down, down and Im sure many of those loans are facing trouble, wonder what this would do to the banking system.....guess the only way to keep these defaults from happening is to keep oil prices up, Im thinking the central banks are probably in some way shape and form keeping oil prices up to keep the next crisis away from the markets, but thats just my opinion, just a wild guess.....
Just an observation. I have been trading since 1995 and I have not seeing a crazy market as it is now. Very irrational. Worse than 2000, worse than 2008. I am not talking about being bullish or bearish. This is the only time that everyone (government, investors, analysts, FED all see some kind of craziness but cannot figure out what to do or what will happen and are just waiting till that thing to happen. Everyone is afraid of the market but at the same time is in and cannot miss the train.
Another day another app gets hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of funding, only downloaded about 1200 times with 600 users yet they got $500,000....amazing isnt it...oh and I forgot to tell you, it was launched only a few weeks ago, imagine that....An app with ZERO in REVENUE, ZERO PROFITS a handful of users and and only out for a few weeks gets a $500,000 investment, Doesn't anyone see the warning signs of what is happening, the world is awash in so many trillions of dollars that anything and everything is worth something today....but I forgot this time its different.....yep http://techcrunch.com/2015/04/10/gossip-app-cloakroom-is-yikyak-for-washington-insiders-only/
A bull market controlled by the central banks, I always wondered what the market would look like today if the fed never came in and propped it up, Im thinking maybe dow 8800 or maybe 10,200 at most....add in the trillions and trillions of dollars and you now have dow 18,000, add in the trillions and trillions of dollars from all the other central banks around the world and you will get dow 20,000 by 3rd Quarter of 2015 and 24,000 by end of 2016, 27,000 by end of 2017 and 31,000 by end of 2018 by 2020 the dow should be at 40,000, so an easy easy easy 100% move up in the next 5 years, thats about 20% a year, Is that enough for the bulls or do they need more???? Hoping the fed keeps that QE going, any downfall in stocks that leads to a drop below DOW 17,000 or so the fed will be pushing QE quicker than you can say BUBBLE ben bernanke. This is one of the longest bull markets in history....I just hope people don't get too addicted to the bull market because after a bull market there is always a bear market, and thats a fact!
I only listen to price, math major, not economics, when it's time to short I'm pretty sure a downtrend or range expansion to the downside will develop, no reason to anticipate.
Remember what I said the VIX will gap up on the open Monday morning. Matters not where the indexes open.