Even Jim Grant thinks the fed won't remove the word "patient" Many market participants expect the Fed to remove the word "patient" from the debate on when to increase interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. June has been seen as a possible start date. The Fed started cutting rates in 2007, and they are now at near-zero percent levels. Despite his personal views, Grant believes central bankers won't remove "patient," because of the strong dollar and a weaker underlying economy. "The surprise might be that the Fed reverts to its now very familiar stance of ease." He pointed to a rolling forecasting model by the Atlanta Fed for real GDP after the release of major economic numbers. The model estimates a first quarter seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 0.3 percent. It's possible history could vindicate the central bank's extraordinary moves, Grant acknowledged. But he said he worries about the precedent that's been set. In the event of a future economic crisis or a bear market in stocks, the Fed would be "duty-bound to re-enter the market just as forcefully as it has done since 2007," he said. "The virus of radical monetary policy is in the political bloodstream, meaning we can't go back now," he continued. "They're bound to come back and do more." http://www.cnbc.com/id/102514871
Peter Schiff says forget patience, QE 4 is coming instead!!! And he is right on, QE 4 is coming. This afternoon the fed is going to bow to wall street again! Get ready for some HUGE volatility, Im thinking at least a 300 point swing in the dow..... Peter Schiff has a simple message for traders: you don't need patience. While Wall Street waits on whether or not the Fed will include the word "patient" in its statement Wednesday, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital is instead waiting for something else: another round of quantitative easing. Read MoreFirst rate hike now likely in August: CNBC Fed Survey "I think the Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than it is to raise interest rates," Schiff told "Futures Now" on Tuesday. "Wall Street is looking for the Fed to take [the word 'patient'] away because the Fed wants to maintain the pretense that they are actually going to raise rates, but I don't think that's going to happen at all."
Good morning to you too. And OH MY GOD, Shanghai closed up 2.1% because economic data is bad again! Shocker. If they start nuking buildings, I am sure it will rally 100% more, because you can imagine all the reconstruction they can would need. I am a little disappointed they cannot engineer a up 10% day every day. Why the puny 2% rallies? I mean seriously, is that the best they can do?
Now we can get back to better than expected economic data. The past DATA WAS MANIPULATED JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE THE FEDERAL RESERVE COVER TO DUCK ANY FUTURE RATE HIKES..... Now, as we near the next FOMC meeting the data will once again turn negative to provide cover. This pattern will persist until we near the presidential election cycle.
I expect the end of Q1 ramp up to new highs. People don't even think other wise. It's all rigged like this. You have to learn to think like this if you want to make free money.
Interesting. A violent correction across most asset classes at FOMC. Oil spiked just before FOMC and then really spiked, ES spiked 17 seconds before a major spike in the same direction. gold up. Gold and oil both up about the same amount. Dx flash crashed, Euro 3 percent up like a penny stock. you gotta stop worrying and love the algo driven mahket.
This market is sick, you may not think it is with the gains its seen in the last 6 years, but with a day like today and fed controlling 100% of the movement something is very wrong, it just goes to show you how much control the fed has on the market yet many people will claim that the fed has nothing to do with wall street etc etc, everything the fed says the market pays attention to and now that it is an ago driven market its more sick than ever before....I want to know how closely watched these fed meetings were say 15, 20, 30, 50 years ago....I watched the moment 2pm came and all you see is one line going straight up in all indexes and stocks, straight up. Thats all the algorithms working together....thats not little your uncle or your best friend buying 100 shares pushing the market up, thats all computer trading....now the big question is what comes tomorrow, a push higher or the same case of the dollar rising and oil and commodities falling.....nothing like a good old fashion FOMC meeting where the doves come out to play....
Yeah markets sure don't seem like "natural" auction price discovery markets anymore. Not that there wasn't some manipulation. None of it should bother traders much, but you have to be a little concerned what happens when it all comes crashing down. Good trading to all.
After FED announcement market went up and then it was sold off and then it went up much higher and stayed there. I am speechless. I believe it was a jerk reaction to early selloff and short covering. Check out the chart. DOW is up 50% in just 3 years. wow. I say it will end very bad. When unemployment goes down to 5%, FED will say, ok how about 2% and by the way it is already Sept, lets start raising interest rate from 2016 and since the money does not have place to go, market is going up which is very unhealthy because it does not reflect the true growth. If the economy is growing at 2.5% how come market goes up 20% !!?
I’m not saying that the current market is perfectly valued, but when SPX went from 1,500 to 750, was the GDP cut in half? No, so you cannot simply take the last 3 years as a starting point.