That chart is a chart of BEAUTY, it just goes to show everyone here that this market is up on nothing more than the fed, its a fed backed rally, ZERO ZERO ZERO ZERO FUNDAMENTALS ZEROOOOOO They talk the market up every time its on the edge of breaking down, I hope everyone realizes that there will be a time coming that no matter what words are spoken by yellen or draghi or greenspan or BUBBLE ben bernanke that markets will fall very hard, its all a game, this market is so protected by what the fed says, and the funny thing is that everyone seems to be clueless about that fact, the charts show it, pull up any chart in the last 6 years of this bull market, its nothing but a fed fueled rally, QE RALLY, ZERO interest pumped up rally, this can't go on forever, the fed has nothing left to fight the next collapse in the economy, they are out of everything, and anyone who believes rates are going higher, well you are very wrong on that, rates are going to be stuck at 0% for the next 3 or 4 or 5 years, they can't raise them, they only have about $5 trillion on their balance sheets, plus the economy and the too big to fail banks have gotten so used to this free money thats its never going to stop, its now a global situation where which country can do the most QE, we have Japan and now Europe even yesterday Switzerland did a little game of QE, its going to catch up, many not now but in due time, no way to avoid it.
I say why not, anything is possible, even if we rally 15% to say dow 20,000+ the next collapse will take the DOW right back below 15,000 on a sweet 30% drop....Look at the Nikkei, no one saw that collapse coming, from just above 38,000 in December 1989 to under 16,000 by 1992, then it jumped back to 22,000 by 1996 only to drop to 13,000 by 1998 and then another rally to 20,000 in 2000 probably backed by our dot com bubble here in the US to 7800 by 2003...it then rallied to 18,000 by 2007 again on our massive asset housing bubble here in the US which inflated every asset around the world, by 2009 the Nikkei was back at 7500.... now i know Im comparing two totally different markets, but it just goes to show you that rallies and bull markets don't last forever, they come and go, that back in 2007 with the dow at 14,000+ not one person would ever even think the dow would drop 7000 points in less than 2 years or lose 50% of its value, what Im saying now is that everyone thinks the market knows one way UP, that everyone has at least a 5-9% gain for the S$P this year after a massive 175%+ rally, this could play out longer, but just keep in mind that the next collapse will come in due time, they always do, timing it is impossible, do not think for a minute that the fed will have this markets back, they will but what ever they have in mind will not work, because when this market starts to break apart it will do so very quickly no matter how much QE the fed pumps in or how low interest rates go, who knows maybe they make them negative for a change, that would be fun to watch.
To answer my own questions, things will be different if I saw a run for a bank in China. Or if Greece left the Euro or something. But why not wait until But it doesn't really help if I am long TVIX right now -- wrong is just wrong. Knowing that we will get +100% and -50% over the next 5 years doesn't help.
Let's see consumer sentiment fell over 4% missing expectations ....market ignored that as 18,000 was more important and 2090 on the s$p breaking the December 29th close. Now we still have Greece coming up for Monday but I don't think it matters because when the deal wasn't made a couple of days ago markets still rallied on news that should have sent the market down. So the Greece news is really a non event but cnbc makes it an event just to place more factors into either why the market sold off or rallied. It can't do either without Greece being mentioned on a daily basis even though their GDP is a whopping $240,000,000 which is nothing compared to some states in the US.