Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

I keep saying over and over again. Its inflate or die. There is no turning back. This years credit expansion must be even greater than last years or the death spiral will commence.

 

Three things that I see that could cause some problems:
A strengthening Yen
A significant uptick in real US unemployment/ significant decrease in US consumption
Some massive fund or a few of them that can figure out where the loose thread/s is/are that will unravel everything and are willing to pull on it/them for ridiculous profits.

 

They say its hard to tell a "bubble" until it bursts.



:eek:

 

This is my problem with holding gold, when asset prices get cut (or i should say if) I think gold will inevitably take a major haircut too though relatively speaking it will fare better. It is after the correction when the central banks really prime the pump of recovery that I think gold will see its biggest gains (basically Faber's view). As contrarian as it is I think the $ will be the place to be if things really unravel as all these emerging markets are going to get slaughtered and the $ will again be a safe haven (another reason why gold is going to take a hit). Once the dust settles and the race to reflate starts that is the time to go all in on gold).

 

What they should say is that it is hard to know how big a bubble it is going get until it bursts.

 

a significant uptick in unemployment????

I don't see that happening, in fact every month when they revise the job data its significantly greater than it was originally figured at.

Significant decrease in US CONSUMPTION???

Never, the consumer only knows how to spend, how do I know...Negative Savings rate in the U.S. 2006 was the lowest in over 70 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!

However with ARMS resetting and housing prices dropping the ability to borrow against those houses has become quite tough, so borrowing on a Credit Card at 15% will the only way to go.

 

could say that too, just like nasdaq 5000, Im sure weeks before that many thought 6000, 7000, and even 10,000 but 5000 why??? This bubble is just as hard to figure out as any other, its not a question of IF, its a question of WHEN.

 

Borrow at 15%, invest in S&P and get 17%. This carry trade will make an easy 2% profit.

 

No need to be scared, nice up room to go!!! Let's look at what happend 1993-1995. Everybody was in disbelief as well!!!!

 

Its a runaway bull market, good news is good news and bad news is good news.